Angels vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Yankees Capitalize on Soft Angels Staff

Following yesterday’s soggy marathon affair at Fenway, the Los Angeles Angels continue on the road and open up a three-game set in the Bronx vs. the New York Yankees, who sit as -145 home favorites with a total of 9.

With double-digit winds blowing out to right-center field and neither team trotting out their best starting pitcher, should bettors expect some runs today at Yankee Stadium despite both teams being profitable to the Under on the season?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Yankees on Tuesday, April 18.

Angels vs Yankees odds

Angels vs Yankees predictions

Angels starter Jose Suarez has an earned run market set at 2.5 that is juiced to the Over, meaning the books are expecting some early runs from his opponent. Considering the state of the visiting bullpen, New York could be plating runs early and often tonight.

The Yankees are missing some pop in the order with Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup, but Suarez has been very generous this season with 11 runs on 18 hits over just 8.1 innings of work, and is losing grip on the Angels’ No. 5 pitching role. 

Even if the Yankees manage just two runs vs. the Halo starter, the L.A. bullpen could also help with the New York team total Over.

Thanks to yesterday’s rain delay(s), the L.A. bullpen had to work hard and threw seven innings. They might have burned two high-leverage pitchers in Matt Moore and Carlos Estevez, who have thrown twice in three days. That leaves some questionable middle relievers for the visitors to trot out — possibly to clean up Suarez’s mess.

The wind is also blowing out to right field, which should help the right-handed bats — including the ever-dangerous Aaron Judge — carry the ball the other way vs. the left-handed starter. New York is a Top-10 offense in wRC+ and slugging, and has hit the third-most home runs in baseball.

My best bet: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (-122 at Pinnacle)

Angels vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees’ biggest edge in this game is with their bullpen, which is fresh and hasn’t needed to throw a pitch since Saturday thanks to Gerrit Cole’s complete game on Sunday and a day off yesterday.

That’s great news for the -145 home favorites, who opened at -135 and have hit -150 in some places. The New York bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball at 2.36 and features a great stable of middle relievers who will likely need 15 outs today with Clarke Schmidt starting and being limited in terms of a pitch count. 

The same cannot be said about the visitors. As we mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in this pen already. With Suarez struggling, this game will likely be decided by the strength of the relievers, and that favors the Yankees significantly.

New York might even have the edge offensively, too. Stanton is on the shelf as well as Josh Donaldson, but there are plenty of holes in this L.A. lineup. Rookie Zach Neto is struggling with the adjustment and hitting atop the order, and guys like Gio Urshela are likely to cool down, so this can be an easy lineup to navigate outside of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. 

Hats off to bettors who got the Yankees at -135, but I think there is still more room to buy the home side even at -145 or -150. The edge New York has in the bullpen is big and even more prominent when we factor in that both teams will likely need at least 15 outs from their relievers.

Angels vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The winds are blowing out to right-center field at Yankee Stadium with mid-50 temperatures. They aren’t the best hitting conditions on the board, but despite Suarez’s command improvement, he’s been around the zone too much with average stuff and has a .409 batting average against. The Yankees can crowd the bases early and could also hit well vs. the L.A. bullpen, which may be missing some key arms.

Schmidt isn’t a pitcher I’m looking to bet the Under with, either. He’ll likely see the Angels two times through the order before giving way to the bullpen. He’s allowed at least three runs in each of his three abbreviated starts, and could aid this Over with some early runs across the first four innings. 

The scoring could slow down later, more so for the visitors, but early runs are a decent thing to bet on tonight in the Bronx. We’ve already seen 15 points of movement to the Over at bet365 since opening. There are some 4.5s available, but the flat Over 5 is also in play here at -105. Some books are already at 5.5 with the first half total. 

Angels vs Yankees game info

Angels vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Suarez (0-1, 10.80 ERA): Suarez gets the start tonight after the bullpen had to eat seven innings with five relievers yesterday in Boston. Suarez has been hit hard and often through two starts with 18 hits allowed over 8.1 innings of work. He predominantly throws three pitches; a fastball, a slider, and a changeup, with opposing batters hitting .410 off the trio of offerings. THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches, 15.2 outs, 2.96 earned runs, and 4.1 strikeouts.

Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 8.44 ERA): The favorites will go with Clarke Schmidt, who will be making his fourth start and has yet to record more than 12 outs. He is likely headed back to a relieving role once the rotation gets healthy. The right-hander is coming off a four-inning, 72-pitch outing where he got just four missed swings. He’s struggled with his cutter that he throws 27% of the time, as opposing batters are 9-for-14 against it with four extra-base hits. THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches, 14.9 outs, 2.57 earned runs, and 5.17 strikeouts. 

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The Angels are 14-39 SU in the last 53 meetings in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Yankees

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