The World Series shifts to the Big Apple when the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for Game 3.
The last two times a team has gone up 2-0 in a Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series, the team trailing the series has gone on to win. New York will be hoping history repeats itself, and our Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions like its chances to take a step towards that happening.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, October 28th.
Dodgers vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3?
The New York Yankees. The sense of urgency and the home environment will make a difference, and that's before you get to their massive starting pitching advantage. If there was one imperative in this series for the Yankees, they must win the game Walker Buehler starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Buehler has been largely ineffective this season coming off a long-term arm injury thanks largely to hard contact, which the Yankees bats can exploit.
Will Freddie Freeman hit another home run?
Freddie Freeman is in the driver's seat to win World Series MVP. With his homer in Game 2, he became the second player in league history to have two home runs and a triple in the first two games of the Fall Classic.
You can find varying numbers on him to go deep again, with the best number being +725 at BetMGM. Often, you'll see a number get inflated on such a hot hitter, and it appears that's yet to happen here. With that said, making it three straight games with a long ball will be challenging.
My Dodgers vs Yankees best bet
Pick
Yankees moneyline (-155 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway: This is a must-win for New York.
Overcoming 2-0 in a series is doable, even expected, given the pitching matchup. However, overcoming 3-0 is not, especially against the Dodgers. Luckily for New York, I fully expect to avoid that scenario.
This is as good a spot to fade Buehler as you'll find. Even though he's shown some signs of life in the postseason, this is too difficult a matchup to overcome.
We've seen Buehler twice in the playoffs, and while he was strong for four innings against the New York Mets, his start against the San Diego Padres was a different story as he allowed six earned runs on seven hits and a home run.
One of the things the Padres did very well this season was make contact when they chased, ranking first in MLB. That was part of why Buehler struggled. He threw nearly half of his pitches outside the zone, and the Padres feasted on those fringe pitches. This highlights a different problem in his matchup against the Yankees — New York won't swing at those pitches.
Outside of adding Juan Soto, the Yankees' patience has elevated them to a legitimate title contender, entering with the sport's lowest swing and chase rates. That creates issues for Buehler, as he'll want to live on the edges and see New York chase those pitches. When they don't, the things that have eaten him up so much this season (a barrel rate and hard-hit rate near the bottom of baseball) will be exploited.
We have yet to mention Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt. That's because, from my perspective, the Yankees shouldn't need a ton out of him: Just a solid showing where he doesn't get blown up.
Schmidt has been quite good at that this season, too. He's given up more than three earned runs just once, including starting against some big power bats from the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles. As long as that consistency continues, I'm happily backing the Yankees to get back into this series.
Dodgers vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Giancarlo Stanton 1+ RBI
I'll continue to back a relatively hot bat that should be able to take advantage of the protection in front of him.
As usual, Aaron Judge and Soto will bat directly in front of Giancarlo Stanton. Both are well-built to tackle Buehler's issues and how often he throws the fastball. Stanton has been known to hit the ball extremely hard, and I expect him to also take advantage of those opportunities.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Yankees odds
Dodgers vs Yankees live odds
Dodgers vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +1.5 (-170) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Run line: Los Angeles +125 | New York -150
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Dodgers vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have recently had a decisive advantage over the Yankees, with four wins in the last five head-to-head meetings.
- Of those five meetings, the Over has hit an impressive four times.
- Although the Yankees have lost two straight in this series, New York has still won bettors nearly a unit of profit over the last 10 games.
Dodgers vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Yankees.
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 10-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (2024 postseason: 0-1, 6.00 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (2024 postseason: 0-0, 3.86 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Yankees latest injuries
Dodgers vs Yankees weather
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