Angels vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Quick Night Expected for Canning

The New York Yankees dropped the opening game of a three-game set with the Los Angeles Angels yesterday as a -145 favorite and will hope they can get some innings from starter Jhony Brito after the bullpen ate 5+ innings last night. 

With Griffin Canning making just his second start since 2021 and likely having a short leash, can this weaker Yankees lineup produce some runs early after a poor showing last night?

Find out in my MLB betting picks for Angels vs. Yankees below. 

Angels vs Yankees odds

Angels vs Yankees predictions

Griffin Canning missed all of 2022 and a good chunk of 2021 thanks to a back issue. He began this season dealing with a groin injury and made his first start since July 2021 last week vs. a soft Washington lineup. He threw 69 pitches in that start and will have a short leash again today which should favor his Under 4.5 strikeouts.

Canning sat down four Washington batters in his first start but his 22% strike-swinging rate isn't something to expect going forward. He’s a K/9 pitcher with many projections predicting that the number falls this season with the time off.

Hitting five punchouts could prove difficult with a pitch count that could see him done after five innings. THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches, 14.6 outs, and under 4.5 strikeouts. It’s also projecting for him to get hit and give up nearly three runs in the abbreviated outing.

It’s not an intimidating lineup without Giancarlo Stanton, but the light-hitting bottom of the order isn’t as strikeout prone as the top of the order which should keep the Ks to a minimum. 

With a legit pitch count and no overpowering stuff, there is a chance he doesn’t see the lineup a third time.

My best bet: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105) 

Angels vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The New York Yankees had a better chance to win as shorter favorites yesterday facing Jose Suarez and a bullpen that was overworked the day before. Now today, as -130 favorites after opening at -140, the Yankees and this non-intimidating lineup could be trailing early if starter Jhony Brito has an outing like he did last week.

The rookie right-hander managed just two outs in his last start and gave up seven runs on six hits. There is some meat to this L.A. lineup that hung four runs on yesterday’s starter Clarke Schmidt. The top of the lineup went 7-for-18 and had four extra-base hits.  

Griffin Canning made his first start in over a year last week and although he might not go deep today for the visitors, he's a decent arm that might be the better of the two starting pitchers and he could have the better relief today, as well.

The Angels were at a disadvantage yesterday after the bullpen had a long day on Tuesday in Boston, but this unit shut the doors vs. this New York lineup last night and has plenty of arms left today to clean up Canning’s likely shorter outing.

Just like last night, L.A. could be playing with the lead early and might not have to score late vs. a very good New York bullpen, but even if the visitors do need some offense late, the Yankees used four middle relievers yesterday after Clarke Schmidt’s short outing, and two of them (Jimmy Cordero and Ron Marinaccio) threw 28+ pitches making them questionable for today.

This is not a strong New York lineup — especially in the lower third. Aaron Hicks and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are not a worry and even leadoff batter and rookie Anthony Volpe (.180 AVG) aren’t moving the line. 

I’m leaning on the visitors today and the market is moving that way as well. 

Angels vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

Yesterday’s total opened at 9 and closed at 9.5 in the 5-2 L.A. win that saw all the runs scored in the first five innings. With today’s total sitting at 9, I’d prefer to put my money on the first-five Over at 4.5 or even at 5 at plus money.

Both starting pitchers come in with giant question marks as Brito could be losing his rotation spot with another poor outing while Canning has just one Big League start since 2021 thanks to injuries. Both of these orders are also top-heavy and the top third of each lineup could see a third at-bat in the first five innings. 

Ultimately, I’d like to avoid both bullpens in this total as the Yankees still have one of the lowest ERAs in baseball in their pen and the Angels proved last night that their high-leverage arms could shut down this New York lineup. 

It will be sunny with low-60s temps and single-digit winds blowing out at Yankee Stadium.

Angels vs Yankees game info

Angels vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Griffin Canning (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Canning made his first start since 2021 last week and went five innings allowing five hits and no runs on 69 pitches. The right-hander has a career 4.70 ERA but isn’t dealing with any velocity issues with all the time off. THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches and 14.6 outs before handing things over to the bullpen.

Jhony Brito (2-1, 6.75 ERA): Brito recorded just two outs in his last outing with seven earned runs on six hits vs. a light-hitting Twins team. He had pitched well in his previous two starts (10 innings, five hits, and just one run allowed) so I’m not totally overreacting to the bad outing that ballooned his ERA, but this is still a raw rookie pitcher and how he responds is tough to predict. The rookie pitcher isn’t missing many bats and is in the rotation due to injuries to the New York pitchers. 

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