It's the final of a three-game series for the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels after a doubleheader last night.
The Yankees split those two games because, of course, they did, as seemingly neither team between New York and the Baltimore Orioles want to gain a leg up in the divisional race.
The two teams have been separated by just a game in the AL East first-place spot for what feels like a lifetime. Today, they'll enter knotted up with the exact same records, which means today's game against the Angels is another big one for the Yankees.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Angels vs Yankees predictions for Thursday, August 8th.
Angels vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This total is too low. Consider that even the median runs scored in these last ten head-to-head matchups is eight, and you'll start to see why. I projected this number at 9.2 and happily grabbed the Over as my best bet this evening.
Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and I've regularly documented throughout this season that he'd be a good fade option in the second half of this season. Why? Anderson carried the biggest differentials of actual ERA against expected ERA, meaning that regression was coming; it was just a matter of when.
We've started to see that happen — at least some. Anderson has been hit harder over his last three games and produced a few uneven results. The New York Yankees should be able to take advantage of that hard-hit aspect in a big way. Anderson, we'll enter this evening with a fastball run value in the bottom 30% of baseball. I've said this before; I've said this a thousand times, but being a fastball-heavy pitcher against the Yankees isn't a great thing. But it's particularly bad when that fastball isn't good. Expect the Yankees offense to seize on this and put a good chunk of our total on the board.
On the other side is Nestor Cortes, who has been consistently average to below par for the Yankees this season. His last three starts indicate what we've seen from him all season: 5.1 innings with three earned against the Philadelphia Phillies, 4.7 innings with four earned against the Boston Red Sox, and 4.1 with six earned against the Tampa Bay Rays. If we get anything around those performances here, we should be able to cash here. I like our chances.
The Angels haven't been great against left-handed pitchers this season, but they've been right, too. What's most intriguing about this matchup is that LA sees a massive lift in its hard-hit metrics when facing lefties with a hard-hit rate of 33.7%. That's the 5th best in baseball.
That's problematic for Cortes, who comes in tonight, with that being his most significant issue, with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 10% of baseball.
Angels vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Jo Adell to hit a HR
We're pairing Jo Adell to go yard with our best bet. This is just too much value to pass up.
Adell has the unique distinction of having the best hard-hit rate among Angels players and the 5th best-isolated power rating against lefties on the season. At a price point north of +500, it isn't easy to pass up against Cortes. After all, he's allowed multiple homers in over half of his last ten starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Angels vs Yankees odds
Angels vs Yankees live odds
Angels vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-120) | New York -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +184 | New York -220
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Angels vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a highly competitive recent matchup, with each team holding a 5-5 record against the other over the last ten.
- New York has been rolling. They've won eight of their last ten and scored many runs over a stretch, yielding bettors +4.2 in profit.
- In what has become commonplace, the Yankees have taken early money again. After opening as low as -220 in some places, bettors have taken that number down to an almost universal -260 at best.
- Los Angeles hasn't been terrible, but they have lost seven of their last ten games, which has resulted in a net loss of just over 2 units.
Angels vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last ten games (+4.10 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Yankees.
Angels vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports West, YES |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Tyler Anderson (8-10, 3.05 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (5-9, 4.17 ERA) |
Angels vs Yankees latest injuries
Angels vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
