The Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners kick off a huge four-game set at T-Mobile Park on Thursday night that could have huge implications in the AL playoff race.
Seattle has, surprisingly, stayed competitive into the second half and enters this series 3.5 games back of the A's for second in the division — and the final wild-card spot. In a good pitching matchup that features Sean Manaea and Chris Flexen, Oakland is a -140 road favorite for the series opener.
Find out who we like in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for A's vs. Mariners on July 22.
A's vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Thursday, July 22, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ROOT NW, NBCS CA
A's vs Mariners odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 7 p.m. ET, Oakland is out to a -152 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, well up from the -127 opening price. Still, it's two-way moneyline action with a lean toward the A's, who are taking 53 percent of bets and 60 percent of dollars. The total dipped from 8 to 7.5, with 57 percent of bets/77 percent of money on the Under. "We saw some sharp money on Under 8," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameA's vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28 ERA): The lefty will make his second start coming out of the All-Star break after throwing 5 1-3 innings of three-run ball in a no-decision against Cleveland last week. He struck out seven — the fifth straight outing he has fanned at least six — but was taken deep for the third consecutive game.
Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35 ERA): Flexen is enjoying his best season in the majors after making a one-year pitstop in the KBO last year. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since June 2 and has a 0.90 ERA over three July outings. The righty is coming off back-to-back seven-inning gems against the Los Angeles Angels, going seven frames in both games while holding the AL West rival to a combined one run.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
A's: Chad Pinder 2B (Out).
Mariners: Jake Fraley OF (Out), Kyle Lewis OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Mariners.
Moneyline pick
Seattle is the only team that's legitimately in the AL playoff race with a negative run differential. The Mariners have surrendered 52 more runs than they've scored but enter this AL West clash with the A's six games above .500, with both teams applying pressure on the first-place Houston Astros. How?
Perhaps the biggest thing they can point to is an MLB-best 10-1 record in extra-inning contests as well as the top mark in one-run games at 20-8. A strong bullpen has helped them escape tight games with victories, making up for an offense that has the third-worst OPS in baseball. M's relievers have been worth 4.6 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) — trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays — and the group has accounted for more than half the WAR that Seattle's pitching staff has accumulated this season.
But winning close games late isn't really predictive of future performance, which is why this still very much feels like a smoke-and-mirrors club.
They will be facing a significantly better team in this series, and one that's more offensively gifted by any measure. In a Manaea vs. Flexen showdown, that offensive edge is absolutely a big advantage.
Manaea hasn't been his sharpest in July but he put together a dominant stretch in June (1.13 ERA over five starts) and has the ability to shut down good lineups — and this Mariners team is certainly not a good lineup. They struggle hard versus southpaws, ranking last in batting average and 27th in OPS, and the Oakland lefty is primed to put together a strong performance tonight. He's striking out a career-best 9.44 batters per nine innings and gets an M's team that has the fifth-highest K rate in the majors.
While the A's don't have the greatest value, we feel a lot more comfortable backing the road favorites with Manaea on the mound.
PREDICTION: Oakland (-140)
Over/Under pick
A Flexen-Manaea matchup in Seattle's run-suppressing park might seem like an automatic Under bet on the surface, but 7.5 is a low number — tied for the lowest on the MLB odds board for today's slate.
Flexen has the third-lowest K rate among qualified starters, and while strikeouts aren't everything, they absolutely do matter. Not having swing-and-miss stuff and putaway pitches to get out of jams leaves any arm susceptible to crooked numbers. And while Flexen has done a superb job navigating by without being able to retire batters on strikes, thanks to keeping the ball in the yard and a low walk rate, he did get hit hard by the A's in June, allowing five runs on seven hits.
As offensively challenged as the Mariners' lineup is, they can club homers, something Oakland can do, too. Some long balls with runners on base will threaten that total in a hurry.
Flexen has been strong, stringing together a 1.36 ERA over his last six starts, but will be up against an A's team that has a Top-10 offense in the majors, as measured by FanGraphs' wRC+, and puts the ball in play, sporting a high contact percentage and below-average K rate. This isn't the greatest matchup for him and as good as Seattle's 'pen has been on the whole this season, the group has a 4.57 ERA and .262 batting average against (seventh-worst in MLB) over the last month.
We think Oakland will do some damage tonight and the total is simply too low for us to side with the Under.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-115)
A's vs Mariners betting card
- Oakland (-140)
- Over 7.5 (-115)
Picks made on 7/22/2021 at 10:46 a.m. ET
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