One of the biggest games on the MLB betting board on Opening Day is an AL West clash between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels.
Love them or hate them (most likely hate them), the Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball for years and are coming off a World Series loss to the Braves.
But things won't be easy for the Stros today as they are slim +101 underdogs against reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani in Anaheim. Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels April 7, with first pitch scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET.
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Astros vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Angels opened as -130 favorites for this contest with the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money has come in on the Astros, shifting the line to Angels -120. While the total has stayed steady the juice on the Over has moved from about -110 to as high as -130 at some books as of noon ET.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Angels predictions
- Prediction: Angels ML (-120)
- Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120)
- Best bet: Ohtani Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130)
Picks made on 4/07/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-SW, Bally Sports
Astros vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Framber Valdez LHP (11-6, 3.14 ERA): The 28-year-old is coming off a breakout season for the Stros, pitching to a 1.25 WHIP with 125 strikeouts across 134.2 innings of work.
The southpaw made two starts against the Angels last September, throwing seven innings of shutout ball in L.A. but surrendering two dingers and five runs in Houston just two weeks earlier.
Shohei Ohtani (9-2, 3.18 ERA): Ohtani is coming off a banner season where he claimed the AL MVP award after dominating with his bat and arm. In 23 starts he pitched to a 1.09 WHIP and fanned 156 batters across 130.1 innings.
Ohtani made two starts against the Astros and put together completely opposite performances. On the road in May, he held Houston to four hits and one run while striking out 10 batters in seven innings of work. However, in September, he was shredded for nine hits and six runs before getting the hook midway through the third.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jake Meyers OF (Out).
Angels: David Fletcher SS (Probable), Mike Trout CF (Probable), Tyler Wade 2B (Questionable), Taylor Ward RF (Out), Chris Rodriguez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings between these divisional foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Angels.
Astros vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
If you're not excited for this matchup you're probably not excited for baseball. You've got last season's World Series runner-up Houston taking on the living legend Shohei Ohtani who clubbed 46 homers and posted a 3.18 ERA as a pitcher for an MLB-best WAR of 9.1 last year.
The Astros won their fourth AL West title in the last five years thanks to a terrific group of sluggers that led the majors in scoring (5.33 runs per game) and was second in OPS (.783).
Although they lost All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa in the offseason, his 24-year-old replacement Jeremy Pena has impressed this spring. This is still a star-studded lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel, so offense will not be a problem.
We're a bit more concerned about the Astros pitcher on opening day because we're not quite sold on Framber Valdez. To be fair, the lefty is coming off a strong season at first glance but his advanced stats are far less impressive, including a 4.01 FIP, a 3.81 xERA, and 44.4 hard hit% which was among the worst in the majors among all qualifying pitchers.
That's bad news against an Angels lineup that should, at least on paper, be able to crush the ball.
The Halos went through a rough season in 2021 despite Ohtani's heroics, but that was with three-time AL MVP Mike Trout and All-Star third basemen Anthony Rendon sidelined for most of the year. Having those two back in the lineup, along with Jo Adell who looks poised to break out after a strong spring, will give the Angels plenty of offensive punch.
Even a stud like Ohtani won't have an easy time navigating this potent Astros lineup but he was particularly dominant at home last season, going 6-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a .194 OBA in 13 starts. The Halos also have a strong bullpen after adding a trio of setup men in the offseason, so even when Ohtani comes out of the game they should be able to get tough outs.
There are major question marks about the rest of the Angels rotation, but with Ohtani on the mound, we'll back them at home even against a dangerous team such as the Astros.
Prediction: Angels ML (-120 at William Hill)
Over/Under analysis
Ohtani is a damn good pitcher but the Astros have the bats to get to anyone, as they proved last September when they faced off against Ohtani and plated a total of 10 runs including six against the MVP.
That said, the Angels have an even better chance of getting to Valdez who might be due for some regression after experiencing some luck last year and struggling in the postseason.
Keep in mind that the Halos were 10th in the majors with a slugging percentage of .422 against southpaws last season and that was with Trout and Rendon missing more than 230 games. When healthy, the Angels should be an offensive powerhouse especially if the 22-year-old Adell is ready to live up to his billing after a good September in 2021 and a spring where he slashed .286/.311/.595.
With the Over 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these teams in Los Angeles, we're leaning in that direction today.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at Bet365)
Best bet
The Astros don't strike out much but the Over/Under on Ohtani's strikeouts total today might be a tad too low. Sure, the Angels superstar had just a single strikeout in his last start against the Astros, but in his previous game against them last May, he fanned 10 batters through seven innings.
The Over/Under on his strikeouts total today is set at 5.5 (or at 4.5 but heavily juiced towards the Over). He fanned at least six batters in 16 of 23 starts last year, including seven of his final eight outings.
Ohtani looked sharp in spring training as well, striking out nine batters in just under six innings, and his incredible splitter should wreak havoc against an Astros lineup that struggled to hit that pitch last season.
Pick: Ohtani Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130 at Unibet)
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