The Los Angeles Angels and Shohei Ohtani come into Game 2 of a three-game set versus the division-leading Houston Astros as -120 favorites after losing the opener last night as -105 home underdogs.
With Ohtani on the mound and Mike Trout possibly out, is the 15-point move warranted for an Angels team that has dropped five in a row and faces the best road club in baseball? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels.
Astros vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston opened as a +115 road dog but has moved substantially to +100 with Mike Trout exiting last night’s game and being listed as questionable for tonight. Houston closed as -115 favorites in last night’s 6-5 victory. The total opened at 7.5 and fell to 7 where it currently sits. Last night, the total closed at 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Angels predictions
- Prediction: Astros ML (+100)
- Prediction: Under 7 (-110)
- Best bet: Ohtani Over 0.5 SB (+850), Over 0.5 HR (+430)
Picks made on 7/13/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports West
Astros vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Cristian Javier (6-4, 3.01 ERA): Javier is coming off a rough five-run outing in his last turn but had been elite across his four previous starts. The right-hander doesn’t have a great chase rate but batters still struggle to hit his stuff in the zone as he sits in the Top-5 percent in strikeout rate and Top-18 percent in whiff percentage. Javier throws his fastball 61% of the time, sits in the mid-90s and batters are hitting just .159 off it. He owns a 102/27 K/BB ratio and getting hits off the righty is nearly impossible with just 47 hits allowed over 72+ innings. He also has the fourth-best K/9 in baseball.
Shohei Ohtani (8-4, 2.44 ERA): Ohtani will make his 15th start of the season and currently owns a sub-1.00 WHIP across 81 innings. His last four outings have been near-perfect as the two-way player has struck out 40 batters and allowed zero (!) runs over 26+ innings. He’s heading to the All-Star game, is the No. 2 betting favorite for the AL MVP, and No. 4 betting favorite for the AL Cy Young.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 12-1 SU in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Angels
Astros vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Los Angeles closer Raisel Iglesias took the loss last night after giving up the winning run in the top of the ninth inning. The closer has now given up a run in three straight appearances and no matter how good Shohei Ohtani has been on the mound, he’ll have to hand things over to a Los Angeles bullpen that is one of the worst in the American League.
Ohtani could also struggle to get some run support as L.A.'s lineup is unsurprisingly injured again with Mike Trout exiting last night’s game. We’ve seen the market react to the possible injury to the former MVP so his potential absence is already in the price but it might not be enough to sway us off the Astros here.
Phil Nevin said he removed Mike Trout from the game without any discussion. “I didn’t like the way he was moving,” Nevin said. He believes this is not an IL situation.
— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) July 13, 2022
Ohtani was a -110 in his last start versus the Astros in Houston (a 6-0 win) but tonight’s visitors have been the best team in baseball with a 21-9 record over the last 30 games. The AL West’s best is 15-5 in its last 20 games and outside of a series in the Bronx, the Astros haven’t been a road dog in 18 straight road games.
The price on the Angels is due to Ohtani pitching and the form that he’s in. Over his last four starts, the right-hander hasn’t allowed an earned run, but with how uninspiring this L.A. offense is (especially if Trout sits), one run could be too many for the starter. In Ohtani’s last home start versus the Astros in April, he gave up one run and took the loss in a 3-1 Houston win. Over his career, Ohtani is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA versus the Astros across seven starts.
Ohtani is a brand name that has moved this moneyline in the favor of the home side but bettors who love value will have no problem hitching their wagons to Cristain Javier at even money. Javier is an elite strikeout pitcher and one of just nine starting pitchers with a K% of 30% or better.
Although his HR/9 and BB/9 are league average, this is a pitcher who just spun a seven-inning, 14-punchout outing versus the Halos two starts ago. Javier has very similar numbers to Ohtani and was a -275 favorite in his last outing.
Outside of Ohtani, there isn’t much to like on the home side. The back end of the bullpen is struggling, Trout is dealing with back spasms, and the offense has to face a pitcher who owned them just two weeks ago.
The market is moving towards the Astros for a reason. We’re getting the best team in baseball (in form) at even money versus a team that is mired in another losing skid and is 4-11 in its last 15 games — the worst mark in the AL over that stretch.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (+100 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
With Trout questionable heading into tonight, the total has adjusted from 7.5 to 7 which is significant but still not enough to consider the Over here.
Ohtani has been otherworldly over his last seven starts and hasn’t even allowed a run over his last 25 innings while striking out 40 batters. The Houston offense is missing some big power with Jordan Alvarez on the shelf and the absence of Michael Brantley also affects this lineup as he's been one of the team’s best hitters for average over the last two seasons. Ohtani has seen the Astros twice this season and the Under has hit comfortably in both games.
Javier can certainly go toe-to-toe with the reigning AL MVP as well. There is possibly a slight regression coming for Javier who owns a fairly low BABIP (.249), but his strikeout game should work well tonight versus a weak Angels lineup that ranks as the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days, per FanGraphs.
In his last outing versus the Halos two weeks ago, the Houston righty amassed an incredible 44 called strikes and whiffs over 99 pitches and 14 strikeouts to zero walks. He might not go deep, but he’ll also get to hand the ball off to a bullpen that has the best ERA in all of baseball.
Looking at the weather, Angel Stadium is playing fairly neutral tonight with temperatures in the mid-70s and humidity not being a real factor. After missing the 7.5, we might stay off this total but love a pitcher's duel and have no interest in the Over, even at 7. Some books are as low as -120 on the Under 7.
Prediction: Under 7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Sometimes the best bet isn’t necessarily the one with the highest probability but the one showing the best-expected value. Ohtani’s batting props are all showing +EV per the BAT X projections. His stolen base (+850), home run (+400), run (+140) and RBI (+195) markets are all showing great value.
However, with Mike Trout questionable, we are avoiding the RBI and run markets and putting our attention on his home run and stolen base props.
Ohtani swiped a bag in the last game he started as a pitcher and it was the second time he has stolen a base on his pitching day. With Trout possibly watching and Javier tough on batters, Ohtani should see some clear base paths and might have to get into scoring position in a game that is projected to be low scoring. His +850 stolen base prop is certainly worth a 0.25-unit bet as the BAT X projects him for 0.18 swipes compared to the 0.10 implied steals on the +850 price.
Javier has also been known to give up a long ball or two with a HR/9 that sits well above 1.00 for his career. He is one of the highest fly-ball pitchers in baseball and Angel Stadium plays short to left field now.
Ohtani has increased his OPS by 70 points over the last month and could move to the No. 2 spot in the order if Trout sits and slightly increase his potential plate appearances. His +420 price implies 0.18 home runs but the BAT X projects him for a 0.33 which is the biggest home run prop value of the day. We’re putting the other 0.75 units on this long ball prop.
Shohei Ohtani Prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+430 at Caesars), Over 0.5 stolen bases (+850 at DraftKings)
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