The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a three-game interleague set at American Family Field on Wednesday afternoon. These teams split the first two games in this series and MLB betting lines opened with this grudge match as a pick'em with an O/U of 9.5.
Here are my best free Astros vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions for May 24.
Astros vs Brewers odds
| Astros | Brewers | |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | -110 |
| -1.5 (+145) | Runline | +1.5 (-170) |
| Over 9 (-105) | Total | Under 9 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, May 24, 2023.
Astros vs Brewers predictions
Despite these teams fighting for first place in their respective divisions, neither side has impressed at the plate and both are sending out average starters to the hill tonight.
Houston's Brandon Bielak has a 2.89 ERA through 18 2/3 innings this season but analytics suggest that he's due for some massive regression. He ranks in the bottom 12th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, and has an expected ERA of 5.86.
Milwaukee's Adrian Houser also gets hit hard but his barrel rate is far more impressive and his expected ERA of 3.48 is much closer to his actual ERA of 3.07.
On paper, the Astros have the more formidable lineup but they haven't been performing that way. Both starters are right-handed today and while the Brewers have been solid against righties with an OPS of .729 the Astros have an OPS of just .687.
The analytics haven't been kind to Houston either, with the Astros ranked 27th in barrel rate and 25th in hard hit rate. The Brewers have been slightly better, sitting 12th in barrel rate and 21st in hard-hit rate.
With the analytics giving the hitting and starting pitching edge to the Brewers, I'll back the home side at a pick'em price.
My best bet: Brewers moneyline (-110 at bet365)
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Astros vs Brewers moneyline analysis
The Astros clobbered the Brewers 12-2 in the opening game of this series but were blanked 6-0 last night.
That snapped Houston's eight-game winning streak and dropped its record to 28-20 while Milwaukee improved to an NL Central-leading 26-22.
Despite being eight games above .500, the Stros have been a bit underwhelming following their World Series championship in 2022. Their rotation has been decimated by injuries, forcing players like Bielak into action, while their lineup has failed to live up to lofty expectations.
The Astros and Brewers are tied for 20th in the majors with an OPS of .704. While Houston's lineup got a recent boost with Jose Altuve coming back from the IL, the Silver Slugger second baseman left last night's game early and is listed as questionable for today.
Both starters have made just three starts this season but Houser has far more experience in his career. He has made 79 starts and logged 427 innings with a 4.21 FIP over the last four years while Bielak has pitched to a 5.09 FIP over 113 innings since making his big league debut in 2020.
Houston reliever Rafael Montero was shredded for four runs last night but the Astros have gotten better production from their bullpen over the course of the entire season. Their relievers are fourth in the majors in ERA (3.19) and second in WHIP (1.18). Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 18th in ERA (4.13) and 20th in WHIP (1.31).
Astros vs Brewers Over/Under analysis
Despite a pair of underwhelming starters for both teams, only two runs were scored through the first seven innings last night.
While neither Houser nor Bielak are going to be confused for aces anytime soon, the lineups for both sides haven't been reliable enough to confidently play the Over 9.5 here which explains why the total has been bet down to 9 at most books.
The Astros are 16th in the majors with 4.44 runs per game, while the Brewers are 22nd with 4.19.
The Under has also gone 6-1 in Houston's last seven games on the road while going 7-2 in Milwaukee's previous nine contests with the total set between 9.0 and 10.5.
Astros vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Houston, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Bielak (1-1, 2.89 ERA): Prior to this season, Bielak had made just eight starts with 37 appearances out of the bullpen for a total of 94 1/3 innings over the last three years. Over that span, he pitched to a 5.15 ERA with a 5.18 FIP and a 1.48 WHIP.
Although his analytics indicate that he's due to get lit up, Bielak is coming off his best game as a pro. He limited Oakland to one run through five innings last Friday while fanning nine batters.
Adrian Houser (0-0, 3.07 ERA): Houser is looking for a bounce-back year after pitching to a 4.73 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in 21 starts last season. He's fresh off a gem against the Rays last Friday when he threw six innings of shutout ball.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Astros are 15-39 in the last 54 trips to Milwaukee. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Brewers.
