The 2025 MLB season is upon us, and whether you’re an everyday player prop bettor or a recreational wagerer looking for MLB prop betting tips, simplifying the handicapping process and knowing what to look for (and what not to waste your time on) is critical.
I’m introducing a very practical checklist of things bettors should be looking at when it comes to getting down on MLB player props. Information is always key and we shouldn’t limit ourselves to this list, but with so much to look at, this is a very simple process for analyzing what can be a very overwhelming process with all of the markets.
MLB prop betting tips
What’s Priced In?
Knowing what is priced into a line is maybe the most important thing in prop betting because without knowing that, we can’t figure out what's not priced into it — and that’s the name of the game.
Let’s say Kevin Gausman is making his fifth straight start vs. an average lineup on normal rest and his pitch count hasn’t fluctuated over his last five starts in an indoor game. His pitcher prop markets are going to be wildly efficient at the opening and even more so before the first pitch.
Why? Everything in this matchup is likely priced in. When I’m betting on pitcher props — and you should too — I want to find outliers in the matchup. I’m not talking about a pitcher facing a bad lineup — that’s priced in. I’m talking about finding a pitcher who might exceed or come short of his usual pitch count, a pitcher facing an afternoon lineup that might have some backups, or a pitcher in a good or bad ballpark with favorable or unfavorable pitching conditions (heat/humidity/rain).
If Gausman threw a season-high in pitches in his last start and it’s early Summer heat with the wind blowing out, I’m very confident the opening lines will not reflect some of those factors. I would likely hit his Under strikeouts and/or recorded outs due to a shorter and more inefficient outing.
However, in saying that, bettors should also be able to see if the books have already adjusted those lines to reflect the new information. Betting into a market that you think you have an edge on only to find out you bet a bad number is not a good feeling.
Learn what is priced into the lines you're betting. Just don’t bet Over in good matchups and Unders in bad ones as those are almost always priced in. Find ways for batters to get more or fewer at-bats or pitchers who could exceed or fall short of their usual pitch counts. Pitcher markets are always the easiest to beat the closing line.
Information, Betting Early, and Projections
Now we get to find the information that books aren’t pricing in — but that has a shelf life. If you read that Garrett Crochet is going to be on a pitch count and know that books aren’t pricing it in, it’s time to act, and the earlier the better. If you’re waiting until noon or later to bet pitcher edges, they are likely gone. Even by 10 a.m. ET, the betting community has bet into those markets which indicates to the sportsbook to move their inefficient lines. They adjust to the action coming in and use that information to create more efficient lines/odds.
I’m not advocating that you comb over the entire internet for clues and snippets from managers and beat writers as that's time-consuming and the biggest misconception in betting is the more time you put in the more you’ll know, that’s where trusted projections come in.
Covers has the best MLB projections that are powered by THE BAT. THE BAT is the gold standard and most trusted daily and season-long MLB prop projections.
The first thing I do in the morning during baseball season is wake up and check THE BAT’s projections vs. the market. Almost every time there's a discrepancy in pricing between the oddsmakers and the projections because the model has found something not priced in. That’s when I search for the player in question and usually that not-priced-in nugget of information is right there. Now it is just a race to get the best number as these are some of the most influential projections in baseball that influence the market considerably every day. Getting 80 to 90 points of Closing Line Value (CLV) is not uncommon.
Applying Information to Appropriate Markets
Projections and odds screens make this an easy job, but what if you’re early to some actionable information? Knowing which market to apply that edge to is critical.
If a batter is moving from the ninth spot to lead off, he is going to get more plate appearances, and his hits (total bases) and runs are good spots to look at Overs.
If a player is moving from the eighth to the fifth spot, he is theoretically going to get more RBI opportunities which likely aren't priced in. Don’t just go out and bet on Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases because he has hit the ball well over a small sample size. There is a reason books don’t overreact to small sample sizes. You shouldn’t either.
With pitchers, there is an order in how the books adjust prices (or maybe just how more liquid some markets are than others). What I mean by this is if Pitcher A is pitching on short rest and his strikeout market has already moved 20 points to the Under, his total outs market might not be adjusted yet. Strikeouts are always the first move, then it usually goes total outs next, walks allowed, earned runs, and pitcher to record the win — in that order somewhat. If you’re late to one market because it got bet heavily, make sure you know where the next avenues to use that edge are.
Always remember that pitcher markets are more predictive while hitter markets have a lot of variance due to just getting an average of four plate appearances per game.
Setting
The matchup is almost always priced into the lines but baseball weather and park factors offer some edges to bettors — more than other sports.
Betting on the wind doesn’t take a lot of work but you have to be betting very early to get value on it. Some parks have different wind factors as Wrigley is a wind farm due to its low bleachers in the outfield while Oracle Park is never really affected by wind because of its “barrier effect” thanks to the high bleachers.
Coors Field has its own special set of rules and ballpark dimensions are always being adjusted.
There is also the early heat of the season that can increase run production and shorten pitcher outings due to fatigue while outdoor parks have to deal with rain. Holding a pitcher Over prop in a game that might have a rain delay is always a quick way to feel stupid.
Always check the Covers’ MLB weather page before placing MLB prop bets.
Covers MLB betting tools
Having Outs
This might be the easiest one of the bunch. You aren’t winning money if you have nowhere to bet or if the one book you do have has few markets and bad prices. Sign up for every legal sportsbook in your state/province. Use the bonuses that are offered for sign-ups if those are still a thing. New York might have ruined that for the others.
Some sportsbooks don’t have every market. It’s a bad feeling when you have a great play/edge and you have nowhere to bet it.
You are going to get limited eventually. It’s the nature of the game these days. I don’t agree with it but it’s a tough fight to win. If you have been cashing pitcher props and smashing CLV, you’re going to need multiple books because it’s easy to lose accounts. Priming accounts is a story for another day and one that isn’t an exact science, but just having more places to bet is never a bad thing.
Some books are notorious for hanging stale lines in certain markets. You might have a home-run book, a pitcher’s out book, and use three other books for strikeout props. Having multiple outs is the simplest way to be a better sports bettor in general. Shopping for the best price is the least you can do. When you get good, getting down will be the most difficult thing.
Betting Unders and beating the closing lines is a fast track to getting limited.
Conclusion
The baseball season is a long grind that covers more than half the calendar year. You don’t have to win betting in the first week. Bet early, be conscious of the weather and ballpark settings, have multiple outs, use projections, and learn price points for different players and their different prop markets.
I’d suggest sticking to pitcher markets as they have the least amount of variance but I can’t stop you from betting on home run parlays. If it feels like an ugly bet and is hard to do, it probably has value. Nobody is getting rich betting on Shohei Ohtani's home runs every day. Get comfortable betting Unders and buckle up for the long haul.
