The Atlanta Braves' offense has come alive, but tonight's starter, Chris Sale, has fallen off a cliff after a terrific campaign in 2024.
That's why my MLB picks are betting a run to be scored in the first inning with the Braves facing the Diamondbacks tonight.
Here are my best NRFI bets for Friday, April 25.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
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NRFI (-135 at ProphetX)
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YRFI (-105 at ProphetX)
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YRFI (+110 at ProphetX)
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NRFI/YRFI bets for April 25
Marlins at Mariners: NRFI (-135 at ProphetX)
The Seattle Mariners plate a run in the first inning 40% of the time — the third-highest number in baseball. However, that number drops to just 15.4% at home. Runs are always much tougher to score at an extreme pitcher's park like T-Mobile Park, and the M's have an OPS of just .623 in Seattle.
The Miami Marlins are sending Cal Quantrill and his 8.47 ERA to the mound. Quantrill is a below-average starter, but he tends to pitch well in the opening frame before the wheels fall off. He hasn't allowed a run in the first inning in four starts this year, and he pitched to a 2.79 ERA in the first inning last season with Colorado.
The M's are responding with ace Logan Gilbert, who made the All-Star game last season. Gilbert has a 2.63 ERA with an expected ERA of 2.47 in five starts this year. He'll limit a Marlins lineup that has an OPS of .681 on the road.
Braves vs Diamondbacks: YRFI (-105 at ProphetX)
The Atlanta Braves were struggling at the dish at the start of the year, but have turned things around. They are second in the majors in OPS (.844) over the last week, which is more in line with how they've been hitting the ball over the last few years.
Today, they are on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are third in the majors in OPS (.776) and percentage of first innings with a run scored (40%).
Both teams also have a pair of struggling starters in Chris Sale and Zac Gallen. Sale was the NL Cy Young winner last year but has been awful this season, pitching to a 6.57 ERA with an OBA of .313 through five starts.
Gallen is also having a down year with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across five starts. Gallen has been getting rocked early, posting a 10.80 ERA with an OBA of .333 in the first two innings. With the wind also blowing towards the outfield at 11 mph, expect runs to come in early and often.
Rangers at Giants: YRFI (+110 at ProphetX)
Justin Verlander is a future Hall-of-Famer, but the 42-year-old is a shell of his former self. Verlander had a 5.48 ERA with Houston last year, and he has a 5.47 ERA through five starts with the San Francisco Giants this season.
He faces an under-performing Texas Rangers lineup that looks ready to break out. The Rangers are just 23rd in the majors in OPS (.660), but they are fifth in barrel rate and sixth in exit velocity, which suggests positive regression is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, negative regression is incoming for Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 2.64 ERA but an expected ERA of 4.08. The Giants aren't great at the dish, but they have a solid OPS of .725 at home,e and the wind will be blowing towards the outfield at 9 mph at Oracle Park tonight.
❓What are NRFI and YRFI bets❓
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.
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