The Oklahoma City Thunder are just a game away from sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies and heading to the second round of the playoffs, a task that seems to be very easy with Ja Morant now injured.
I’ll highlight why both offenses rise to the occasion in my Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions, potentially delivering us the highest-scoring game of this series.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, April 26.
Who will win Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 4?
The Memphis Grizzlies gave the Oklahoma City Thunder their best shot in Game 3, going up 29 points before losing the game, and Ja Morant, which makes this one a tough ask. Memphis has played without Morant before and played well, but this is the best team in basketball and arguably the most complete offense in the game.
Memphis has been lost on offense with an efficiency rating of 92.9 and now down Morant there’s very little hope of things turning around. It would be a massive shock – even at home – if the Grizzlies pulled this off.
Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Over 222.5 (-110 at bet365)
This has been the fastest-paced series in the playoffs with a Pace rating of 102.67 — a number that is incredibly high to see in the postseason and one which would still rank around the top five in the regular season.
The Grizzlies are starved for offense and now won’t have Morant to drive the ship, but the thing is that his largest impact has come defensively. During the regular season, the Grizzlies only improved by 0.2 points per 100 possessions on offense with Morant on the floor, but they allowed around three fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Oklahoma City has been incredibly strong defending the rim this year, but has seemed to meet its match with a ton of scoring coming down low from this Memphis team in the series. It’s done a bang-up job around the perimeter, meanwhile, but that’s a bit unusual given it has struggled at times this season to contain shooters.
With Morant out, the Grizzlies will take on more of an outside focus, and that could help them at least sustain their offensive output if they don’t improve upon it. On the other end of the floor, there seems to be another gear for the Thunder, given they’ve struggled to dominate from the 3-point line like they’ve done so many times this season, and now they’ll meet a friendlier defense with Morant sidelined.
All that should amount to a high-scoring affair, and it’s a marvel that this series has yet to produce an Over given the incredibly fast pace. That will change on Saturday.
Thunder vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Over 222.5
Edey Over 18.5 points + rebounds
Williams Over 1.5 threes
Hammering the ball inside has worked to some extent on offense for the Grizzlies, and with that, I believe they’ll continue to lean on Zach Edey to play a large role once again in this one.
Edey has seen his minutes increase with every game, reaching 29 in Game 3, and in that aforementioned contest, he produced his best game of the series with nine points and seven boards.
The Grizzlies were a far better team on the glass than the Thunder all season, and while that’s yet to come to fruition through three games, the tide should turn here, particularly if Edey is going to be logging more minutes.
On the other side of this one, I’m going to bet on the Thunder waking up from deep, especially with a weaker look on defense for Memphis. Jalen Williams is the top target for me with six 3-point attempts in each of the last two games and back-to-back cashes of two or more makes.
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Thunder vs Grizzlies odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies live odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -14 | Memphis +14
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -1000 | Memphis +600
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies are just 4-6 against the spread as home underdogs.
- Oklahoma City is 23-13-2 ATS as road favorites.
- The Over is 23-11 when Memphis closes as an underdog.
- The Under is now 6-1 this year when these two teams meet, including the playoffs.
Thunder vs Grizzlies trend
The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 43 games (+17.30 Units / 35% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Thunder vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, max |
Thunder vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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