The Pittsburgh Pirates (10-16) head to Chavez Ravine for a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (16-9) beginning Friday night.
Paul Skenes takes the mound for the visitors while Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the nod for the home team, setting the stage for an intriguing starting pitching matchup.
Given the dominance of both hurlers, I’m targeting the Under with my best bet in my Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 25.
Pirates vs Dodgers prediction
My Pirates vs Dodgers best bet: Under 7 (-115 at bet365)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is performing like the highest-paid pitcher in professional baseball.
The Japanese native hasn’t allowed a single run to cross the plate in his last three outings, lowering his ERA to 0.93. He’s working with a pristine 38:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has certainly found a groove in his second year with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Underlying metrics support his strong start. He’s making batters miss (89th percentile whiff rate) and forcing ground outs (94th percentile GB%), en route to a 91st percentile xERA (2.18).
The Pittsburgh Pirates don’t offer much resistance at the plate, sporting an 83 wRC+ and .293 wOBA against right-handed pitching. After Thursday's off day, the Dodgers also have a well-rested bullpen and rank fourth in xFIP (3.39) in relief.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh does offer resistance on the mound.
Paul Skenes has a 2.87 ERA that could be even better, considering his 2.06 xERA and 2.00 FIP. The dominant youngster’s 56.9% left-on-base percentage is artificially deflated in the early going. That number was 85.6% a year ago, so it’s likely Skenes will have better fortune going forward.
The hard-throwing right-hander is one of baseball’s best young players for a reason, ranking in the 85th percentile or higher in barrel rate, ground ball rate, xERA, and walk rate.
Pittsburgh is also on a run to the Under, going 4-8 O/U in its last 12 games. The Pirates are 3-9-1 O/U on the road and now face one of the sport’s hottest starting pitchers with a fully stocked bullpen behind him.
On the other side, the Dodgers are 1-3 O/U in their last four home games and are facing one of the most effective starters we’ve seen in some time.
Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts
Under 7
Andrew McCutchen Over 0.5 total bases
Believe it or not, Skenes has gone Under his strikeout prop in each of his five starts this season.
That won’t last forever. Hitters are making contact on 61.4% of his pitches outside the zone. Once that gets closer to the 49.8% Skenes posted a year ago, the Ks will come easier.
LA is a fearsome lineup, but it’s not without swing-and-miss in its game. The Dodgers currently have a 22.5% K rate against RHP.
It might seem counterintuitive to include a Pirates positional player prop Over, but Yamamoto has reverse splits, and Andrew McCutchen hits the four-seamer (161 wRC+), splitter (102 wRC+), and curve (112 wRC+) well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers live odds
Pirates vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +165 | Los Angeles -200
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-130) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)
Pirates vs Dodgers trend
Pittsburgh is 1-8-1 O/U in its last 10 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Pirates vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California |
| Date | Friday, 4-25-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (2-2, 2.87 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3-1, 0.93 ERA) |
Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries
Pirates vs Dodgers weather
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