After splitting the first two games of the series at Toyota Center, the Golden State Warriors will host the Houston Rockets in Games 3 and 4 at Chase Center.
Houston bounced back from a double-digit loss in Game 1 with a convincing Game 2 victory, and Jimmy Butler was limited to eight minutes after taking a hard fall. According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Butler’s status for Game 3 is in “serious jeopardy.”
Golden State's Jimmy Butler has been diagnosed with a deep glute muscle contusion and his status for Game 3 against the Houston Rockets is in serious jeopardy, league sources tell ESPN. This is best case because MRI showed Butler avoided any fracture or structural damage. pic.twitter.com/nTEjv4QKp7
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 25, 2025
My Rockets vs. Warriors predictions expect Butler to sit this one out and for Golden State to struggle on both ends without him.
Read my NBA picks to see how I’m betting the spread and which player and team prop I’m targeting for Game 3.
Who will win Rockets vs Warriors Game 4?
This has been a physical, hard fought battle through two games, and despite playing on the road, the edge goes to the Rockets. Golden State won’t be as tenacious or physical on defense without Jimmy Butler in the lineup.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Rockets moneyline (+120 at bet365)
The Golden State Warriors ended up in the Play-In with Jimmy Butler, but the team was struggling to stay afloat at .500 before he arrived. I don’t expect him to play in Game 3, and that’s going to be disastrous for the Warriors on both ends of the court.
The Warriors’ 2024-25 is a tale of two seasons - the 52 games played before the Butler trade and the 30 played after he arrived. Without Butler, the Dubs averaged 111.7 points, but with him in the lineup, that number jumps to 117.5. The team’s offensive rating with Butler is a healthy 120.7, but without him, it’s 113.4.
Golden State’s defense will take a hit with Butler sidelined. The team’s defensive rating without Butler is 113.9 but an improved 110.5 with him available. The Warriors allowed 112.2 points without Butler and just 107.5 with him. Golden State’s net rating of 10.2 with Butler crashes to -0.5 without him.
The offensive and defensive numbers back up Butler’s tremendous impact, but has that led to wins? In 52 games without Butler, the team posted a 25-27 record compared to a 23-7 record with him on the court.
The Houston Rockets sport one of the best defenses in the Association, and the team’s length and size will continue to give Golden State problems. Without a primary catalyst in Butler, the Warriors will struggle to put up points, and they’ll have a tough time slowing down Houston’s impressive offense.
After a 15-point win and facing a team missing one of its superstars, momentum favors the Rockets, and I’ll take them as outright winners with plus-money odds.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Rockets moneyline
Warriors Under 102.5 points
Moses Moody Over 14.5 PRA
As mentioned above, Golden State’s offense is not the same without Butler in the lineup. The team is already operating at a disadvantage, but Houston’s physical defense makes scoring an even more difficult task for the Warriors.
Golden State has posted point totals of 94, 95, 96, 105, 90, and 99 across their last six meetings with Houston, eclipsing 102.5 points only once. I expect the Rockets to put the clamps on the Butler-less Warriors.
Someone’s got to step up in Butler’s absence, and I expect that guy to be Moses Moody. He finished with 12 points, two rebounds and an assist across 24 minutes in Game 2, scoring in double figures for the first time in nine games as Butler was limited to just eight minutes.
Moody has started 31 straight games for Golden State, averaging 10.7 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists, good for 15.3 PRA. He hit the Over on this line 17 times, and I expect him to do it again in Game 3.
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Rockets vs Warriors odds
Rockets vs Warriors live odds
Rockets vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Houston +3.5 (-110) | Golden State -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | Golden State -140
- Over/Under: Over 203.5 (-110) | Under 203.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has won three of the last five head-to-head matchups with Golden State, but the Warriors are 3-2 in that span.
- The Warriors and Rockets hit the Under in six straight head-to-head matchups.
Rockets vs Warriors trend
The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, max |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
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