I want to sit here and say I’m surprised by the Florida Panthers being up 2-0 in the series, but I should have known better, sleeping on them in the past two games.
Despite maybe being without Aleksander Barkov, my Lightning vs. Panthers predictions favor a low-scoring game.
Find out why in my NHL picks for Saturday, April 26.
Who will win Lightning vs Panthers Game 3?
It’s getting harder and harder to bet against the Florida Panthers at this point with how they have played in the first two games of this series, but at the time of writing this, it’s unclear whether or not Barkov will play and if Brandon Hagel is suspended. Those would be key subtractions from each team’s respective lineups.
That said, from the way Sergei Bobrovsky has played thus far, it’s hard to see the Tampa Bay Lightning offense exploding in Game 3. Bobrovsky has won both games in this series, while skating to a .951 save percentage and 1.00 goals against average. He also has a fifth-best goals saved above expected, boasting a +3.1 rating.
Florida looks very tough to beat.
Lightning vs Panthers prediction
My Lightning vs Panthers pick: Under 5.5 (-105 at Sports Interaction)
Andrei Vasilevskiy had a much better response in Game 2, but the story right now has been how the Panthers have smothered the Lightning. Not only has Tampa scored only two goals in two games, but their power play has now gone a total of 1/8 in the series.
If Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point aren’t producing, that means Tampa is in a lot of trouble. Those three each have one point thus far in two games.
For Florida, their big guys delivered in Game 1, but they’ve committed to defending. Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Aleksander Barkov have recorded three points each. The Panthers' power play went 0/3 in Game 2. They’re not trying to win high-scoring games, their goal has been to limit the Lightning to minimal offensive chances.
The Panthers and Lightning both have the least amount of shots per game in the postseason right now. As it stands, the Lightning have the second-lowest, averaging 20.5 shots per game, while the Panthers actually have the least, generating just 20.0 shots each contest.
The under has hit in four of the last five games.
Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5.5
Bennett 2+ shots
Reinhart 2+ shots
Sam Bennett is coming off a game where he put up four shots on goal, and he was averaging 3.41 shots per game during the regular season. Bennett has been one of the most consistent players for Florida in the postseason and I don’t see that changing.
Sam Reinhart was a little quiet in Game 2, only putting up one shot on goal. In his last five games, Reinhart has averaged 2.4 shots on goal per game. Reinhart is a huge part of the Panthers' power play, as he’s a go-to look in the bumper.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lightning vs Panthers odds
Lightning vs Panthers live odds
Lightning vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-220) | Florida -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +118 | Florida -140
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Lightning vs Panthers trend
The under has hit in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.
How to watch Lightning vs Panthers
| Location | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Puck drop | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, SN |
Lightning vs Panthers latest injuries
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