The postseason rolls on tonight with a trio of Game 3s — and in each, the home team is looking to climb out of an 0-2 series hole.
I expect it to be a low-scoring evening, and I also anticipate the New Jersey Devils climbing back into their series against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Let’s kick-start the weekend with a trio of NHL picks for Friday, April 25.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 25
Capitals-Canadiens Under 5.5
Devils moneyline
Kings-Oilers Under 5.5
Pick #1: Capitals-Canadiens Under 5.5
There have been nine total goals through the first two games of the Round 1 series between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals. Just six of the tallies have come at five-on-five, and both teams have received excellent goaltending.
Caps No. 1 netminder Logan Thompson has a .951 SV% with 3.07 goals saved above expected, while Habs starter Sam Montembeault checks in with respective .921 and 2.12 marks.
Home ice should also help the Canadiens. Montreal went 23-12-6 at the Bell Centre, and the Washington offense dipped on the highway. The Caps scored 3.68 goals per game with 2.82 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and a 24.3 power-play percentage, compared to 3.29, 2.5, and 22.8% metrics on the road.
Pick #2: Devils moneyline
The Carolina Hurricanes travelled poorly during the regular season with a 16-21-4 road record, and while they’ve outscored the New Jersey Devils 7-2 through two games, the Devils have still generated 7.09 expected goals.
While both teams have benefited from incredible goaltending, I’m anticipating Carolina starter Frederik Andersen coming back to earth tonight. He’s cruised to an unsustainably high .960 SV% with 4.94 goals saved above expected. Considering he posted a .899 SV% with just 12.27 GSAx across 22 regular-season appearances, I’m expecting statistical correction to set in.
New Jersey is also ripe to improve on its 2.6 team shooting percentage at five-on-five.
Pick #3: Kings-Oilers Under 5.5
Neither the Los Angeles Kings nor the Edmonton Oilers have received quality goaltending to start their Round 1 series. There have been 12 goals at five-on-five through the first two games despite the teams combining to generate just 6.44 expected goals.
Los Angeles No. 1 Darcy Kuemper sports an .863 SV% with -2.98 goals saved above expected, and Edmonton starter Stuart Skinner has been just as bad with respective .810 and -2.82 marks.
The Kings also surrendered the second-fewest goals per game (2.48) and fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the regular season, and the Oilers were above average with 2.87 allowed per game and the ninth-fewest xGA/60.
When it comes to tonight's Game 3, these two teams battening down the defensive hatches in a low-scoring bout shouldn’t surprise.
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