There’s no better way to kick off a weekend than with some fireworks. I’m talking, of course, about betting home run props.
I’ve found my three favorite MLB player props for Friday night, which include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. breaking out of his home run slump, a sneaky good matchup at Nationals Park, and a Mariners hitter who has returned to form in 2025.
Here are my MLB picks for who will go yard on April 25.
Best MLB home run props today
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ home run (+425) -
Brandon Nimmo 1+ home run (+380) -
Jorge Polanco 1+ home run (+425)
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HR picks for April 25
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ home run (+425 at DraftKings)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to start hitting home runs by the bunches. I’m sure of it.
It could start tonight at Yankee Stadium, and it's not just because his 14 career home runs there is his most in any big league ballpark outside of Toronto.
For starters, the Yankees’ SP is Carlos Carrasco, who has been serving up meatballs this season like he’s working at an Italian restaurant. The veteran right-hander has allowed 15 runs on 23 hits and seven walks in just 20 2/3 innings pitched this season. That works out to a 5.14 expected ERA and a .488 xSLG.
He also just isn’t missing a lot of bats. Carrasco ranks in the eighth percentile in whiff rate and the 14th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Then there is Vladdy. While he just has one dinger on the season, the numbers say a breakout is due. He enters this series ranking in the 92nd percentile or better in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. So bigger hits are coming.
He also has some previous success against Carrasco, going 2-for-6 with a home run. That works out to a .682 xSLG. At this price, I like backing Vladdy to barrel up one of those meatballs tonight.
Brandon Nimmo 1+ home run (+370 at DraftKings)
Kodai Senga and Jake Irvin are facing off when the New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals tonight, so it might not look like a great game to pick home runs for, but the matchup is giving us some underlying value.
Let’s start with the conditions. Nationals Park is ripe for some dingers tonight. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with a 10-12 mile per hour winds blowing out to left-center field. So, there is added chance of going yard tonight.
Next, let’s focus on Irvin. He enters this game with a solid 3.86 ERA, but the advanced numbers say he’s been a little lucky.
The right-hander’s expected ERA is a much uglier 5.01. Irvin also ranks in the 25th percentile or worse when it comes to expected slugging percentage, hard-hit percentage and barrel rate. And there are a few Mets who have barreled him up in the past, including Brandon Nimmo.
While Irvin has been a little lucky, Nimmo has been a little unlucky. The Mets outfielder has a .196 batting average, his xBA is .246, and his .450 xSLG is in the 61st percentile among MLB batters. He also ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Nimmo is also 3-for-12 with a home run in his career vs. Irvin, good for a .560 xSLG. At this price, I like Nimmo to run into one tonight.
Jorge Polanco 1+ home run (+425 at DraftKings)
It looks like Jorge Polanco is showing us that 2024 was just a blip on the radar, as the Seattle Mariners third baseman has gotten back to his slugging ways in 2025.
He enters tonight’s game against the Miami Marlins hitting .351 with a .963 OPS, and four home runs. But Polanco’s advanced numbers are even more impressive.
Polanco ranks in the 80th percentile in barrel rate, the 84th percentile in hard-hit percentage, the 94th percentile in expected slugging, and the 100th percentile in expected batting average. The bat can play.
And it certainly will tonight, because Polanco will dig in against struggling Marlins starter Cal Quantrill.
The 30-year-old right-hander has been roughed up so far this season. His numbers basically look like the opposite of Polanco’s. He enters this game with a 7.01 expected ERA, a .342 expected batting average, and a .529 expected slugging.
So, while Quantrill has only surrendered two home runs this season, he is getting hit hard and often, and it’s just a matter of time before more balls start leaving the yard on him. So, why not tonight?
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees +170
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies +320
- Ben Rice, Yankees +500
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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