Tonight's baseball slate is loaded with value, ranging from strikeouts to home runs.
We've searched the entire board for our latest MLB player props. Try to stay within five cents of the recommended pricing.
Here are my free MLB picks for Friday, April 25.
Best MLB player props today
Mize to record a win (+210 at bet365)
Yamamoto o7.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
Langeliers to hit a HR (+350 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 25
Casey Mize to record a win (+210 at bet365)
Casey Mize takes the mound this evening with an outsized edge over his opponent, and we are backing the Detroit Tigers right-hander to exploit that to the fullest.
Minimizing hard contact is key to countering the Baltimore Orioles' powerful, free-swinging lineup. Mize has excelled at this, boasting a hard-hit rate in the top 20% of the league this season.
Primarily a fastball pitcher, he also wields a strong split-finger and slurve. That split-finger pitch is especially effective, generating a 37% whiff rate and holding batters to a .186 average. With up to five Orioles hitters having above-average whiff rates against the split, Mize could dominate tonight.
Meanwhile, young Orioles hurler Brandon Young faces a tough challenge. Despite his youth and potential for growth, his near-7.00 expected ERA suggests improvement won't come anytime soon, and certainly not against an underrated power Tigers lineup, which is well-equipped to capitalize on poor pitching.
Young's strength lies in inducing ground balls, but this plays into the Tigers' hands, as they have the seventh-lowest ground ball rate in the sport this month. Detroit's ability to put the ball in the air could expose Young's issues with barrel and hard-hit rates.
The edge goes to the Tigers early, and Mize has gone the required length to get a win in all four of his starts this season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
I'm buying heavy stock in Yoshinobu Yamamoto this evening, as I project the Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander to rack up 8.4 Ks.
There's no reason to beat around the bush about it: the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense has not been good this season.
Outside of O'Neil Cruz, there hasn't been much for the Pirates to hang their hats on. They are 24th in the sport in runs per game, with other metrics that aren't exactly promising.
I don't suspect that Yamamoto will run into a ton of trouble, which should enable him to go deeper into the game. More importantly, he’ll be up against a lineup full of swing-and-miss.
The Pirates currently rank in the bottom 10 in baseball in whiff rate, chase contact rate, and strikeout rate. That's a good profile for an elite strikeout pitcher to have success against.
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+350 at Caesars)
Many things set up well for A's catcher Shea Langeliers in this matchup, and just as noteworthy as any is being in his "home" park.
Bat X rates Sutter Health Park as the sixth-best park in the majors for right-handed batters. Tonight, aiding our cause will be a brisk wind headed out to center field that features the shallowest fences in baseball.
The pitch mix Langeliers is likely to suit him well, as he faces Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke. The starter’s pitching arsenal — which includes a barrel rate in the 5th percentile league-wide — is primarily a mix of slider, curveball, and fastball.
Langeliers ranks among the top three A’s in hard-hit rate against all three pitch types, so there’s solid value at this price.
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