You know that scene from the Battle of the Bastards where Jon Snow is standing by himself against an oncoming Army? That must be what Giannis Antetokounmpo feels like right now.
Giannis has balled out, but his Milwaukee Bucks still head home trailing the Indiana Pacers two games to none in their opening-round series.
My Pacers vs. Bucks predictions break down if Milwaukee can strike back, or will Giannis get run over as a one-man army?
Check out my NBA picks for Game 3 of this Eastern Conference quarterfinals set to tip off at the Fiserv Forum at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, April 25.
Who will win Pacers vs Bucks Game 3?
The Milwaukee Bucks look broken right now. I mean, besides Giannis, who looks like he's playing basketball with a bunch of pickup dudes from The Y. The lack of effort defensively means slowing down the Indiana Pacers will be tough. Milwaukee plays a little better at home, but Indiana pulls out a tight 117-113 and takes a commanding 3-0 series lead.
Pacers vs Bucks prediction
My best bet: Pacers team total Over 112.5 (-115 at bet365)
Seriously, what is wrong with the Milwaukee Bucks?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is legitimately doing everything he can (he’s scored 70 points with 30 rebounds and eight assists in two games), but the Bucks as a team look outmatched by the Indiana Pacers at this point.
The biggest problem has been at the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks have a defensive rating of 121.8 through two games. This is the second-worst mark in the playoffs. They are also allowing the Pacers to shoot 50.3% from the floor, including 41.4% from 3-point range. Those are both the second-worst marks in the playoffs.
Now, to be fair, containing Tyrese Haliburton and Co. isn’t the easiest thing in the world, but this effort from the Bucks has been notably bad.
On top of that, the Pacers have been rolling for a while now. They closed the regular season going 15-4, scoring 120.6 points per game, which was fourth best in the NBA during that period. And they haven’t stopped in the playoffs, putting up 117 points in Game 1 and 123 points in Game 2.
Even though the series now shifts to Milwaukee, I’m not sure a change in venue is going to slow the Pacers down offensively.
The Pacers and Bucks have now played six times this season, including the Playoffs, and the Pacers have averaged 117.2 points in those games. They’ve scored at least 114 points five times, and no fewer than 112.
The Pacers' team total for Game 3 is sitting at 112.5. Until the Bucks can prove they are more than Giannis, and can give a better effort defensively, I’m going to believe in the Pacers to put up points.
Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay
Pacers team total Over 112.5
Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 points
This is why the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam a few years ago. Not only is he an outstanding player, but he has invaluable playoff experience, and it’s showing so far in this series.
Spicy P has been uber effective through two games. He went 10-for-15 for 25 points in Game 1 and followed that up with an 8-for-16 performance for 24 points.
The Bucks' defense has been bad, and oddsmakers are giving us a point total for Siakam sitting at 20.5. Over.
And of course, we have to talk about Giannis. The guy has been incredible and is doing everything he can to will his team to wins.
In Game 1, he went 14-for-23 for 36 points. Then went for 24 points on 14-of-20 from the floor. I'll take Over 32.5 points for Giannis in what is a must-win game for the Bucks.
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Pacers vs Bucks odds
Pacers vs Bucks live odds
Pacers vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +3.5 | Milwaukee -3.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +135 | Milwaukee -160
- Over/Under: Over 230 | Under 230
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened Game 3 as 3.5-point favorites, but the home team has seen the early action with the spread moving to 5.5.
- Teams who return home down 0-2 usually start Game 3s well, but the Bucks just look so broken at the moment that I would not be confident laying this number with them.
- The total hit the board at 230, and that's basically where it remains as of Thursday evening.
- The total has crept up with each game in this series. Game 1 closed at 227.7, Game 2 at 228.5. So, we are already a couple of points higher. Even so, I'd lean Over as I'm expecting another solid offensive performance from the Pacers while the Bucks should get a little boost playing at home.
Pacers vs Bucks trend
The Bucks have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home for +10.40 Units and a 41% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
How to watch Pacers vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, 4-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNWIX, FanDuel Sports Network - Indiana |
Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries
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