Seventy points have separated the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies in the first two games of their Western Conference quarterfinals.
With the series now swinging to Memphis, the NBA odds still hold OKC in high regard with Oklahoma City set as a double-digit favorite for Game 3.
I pass on the point spread and put my focus on player performance Thursday night. Here are my best NBA prop picks and predictions for Thunder at Grizzlies on April 24.
Best Thunder vs Grizzlies props
Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals (+120 at bet365)- Holmgren Over 1.5 three-pointers (-125 at bet365)
Morant Over 2.5 three-pointers (+140 at bet365)
Thunder vs Grizzlies player props for April 24
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals (+120 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s defense has been the difference maker in this series so far, drumming up 39 total turnovers along with 20 steals in the first two games.
Memphis has been forced into plenty of bad decisions, with OKC aggressively jumping the passing lanes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander snatched two steals in the Game 2 victory and there’s potential for more swipes in Game 3.
The Grizzlies and Thunder play at some of the fastest paces in the NBA and so far, the tempo of this series has only sped up (pace rating of 104.25). Not only does that rate produce more possessions but playing that fast leads to many miscues.
On the season, SGA averaged 1.7 steals and in his last four meetings with Memphis, including the two postseason games, Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded two or more steals in three of those contests.
Player models for Game 3 all come in above the 1.5-steal total with a high of 1.8 steals tonight. Given my number of 1.71, the Over 1.5 steal prop results should be listed around EVEN money.
This prop market opened with SGA Over 1.5 steals as high as +135 but action on that has knocked the vig down to +120, which is still a solid return given the steal forecast.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 three-pointers (-125 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren has had the hot hand in this series so far, knocking down three triples in each of the opening games in OKC.
The versatile 7-footer is a combined 6 for 12 from distance and has been getting more and more comfortable beyond the arc since returning to action back in February.
He averaged just shy of four 3-point attempts in his final 21 games of the regular season, making 1.4 triples per game. That activity from outside spiked in the home stretch, when Holmgren hit 1.7 shots from deep per outing in his final dozen games before the postseason.
Holmgren gets his first taste of road playoff action in Memphis tonight but he’s not one to shrink away from home. He averaged almost four points more per game as a visitor on the season and was more aggressive from outside in those outings.
The prop markets are moving toward the Over 1.5 makes from downtown from Chet, with sharp books pumping up that result to -144. Player projections are on the other side of the 1.5-triple total, with a ceiling of 1.8, and you can find this at -125 at bet365.
Ja Morant Over 2.5 three-pointers (+140 at bet365)
Memphis’ outside shooting has been horrible in this series, firing at a collective 24.6% clip in the opening two games.
Ja Morant’s 3-for-12 success from beyond the arc has added to those woes, but he did seem to iron out his offensive issues in the second half of Game 2 (went 5 for 11 on FGAs), including making one of two 3-point attempts in the final 24 minutes.
Morant isn’t a great 3-point shooter, but he’s not shy about letting it fly from downtown. Before the postseason, he was making 2.1 triples on more than seven 3-point attempts per game over his final 18 showings and knocked down three or more triples in six of his last 11 outings of the regular season.
The props markets sway between Over 1.5 at -200 and Under 2.5 -210, so he’s getting at least two makes from downtown. Player projections range from 1.7 to as high as 2.3 hits from distance from Morant.
He gets to come back to the friendly confines of FedExForum for Game 3 and with another sizeable spread on the board, game script says the Memphis Grizzlies will be battling from behind and needing its star to score big buckets.
He’ll get two triples to go down. Three doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.
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