The Battle of Ontario continues tonight with Game 3 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.
The Leafs’ power play has been a difference-maker through the first two games of the series and my Maple Leafs vs Senators predictions expect it to remain red-hot in the nation’s capital.
Find out why I’m backing this John Tavares prop with my free NHL picks for Thursday, April 24.
Who will win Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 3?
Toronto won the first two games on home ice, so Ottawa must get on the board with a win tonight.
Despite losing the first two games, the Sens have controlled the play at 5-on-5 with 55.46% of the expected goals, per NaturalStatTrick, out-chancing Toronto 45-27.
Eventually, that process will turn into results. Now that Ottawa has the last chance to get the matchups they want, this is their opportunity to get back into the series, and I expect them to win their first playoff game on home ice since 2017.
Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction
My Maple Leafs vs Senators pick: John Tavares Over 0.5 PPP (+210 at Sports Interaction)
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to take a 3-0 series lead tonight as the series shifts up north to the nation's capital. The Leafs won both games in Toronto, outscoring the Sens 9-4 in the process.
The power play has been a big part of this lopsided goal total so far in this series as the Buds are 4-for-7 on the man advantage. They have made quick work on those opportunities, too.
Each of the four PPG’s have come within 10 seconds of the power play beginning. The Leafs are attacking the net right away and finding success.
John Tavares has been leading the way on the power play with three points — two goals and a helper.
The Ottawa Senators were extremely undisciplined in the first game with six penalties, but cleaned it up in Game 2 with just one penalty. However, I expect Ottawa to play rather desperately tonight and try to muck it up with some added physicality, which could result in a few more penalties.
Keep in mind, the Sens were a Top-10 penalized team in the NHL during the regular season, averaging four penalties per game. So, I expect to see multiple power play opportunities for the Buds tonight, and there’s a strong likelihood Toronto capitalizes on those chances. I like Tavares' odds best at +210 to be involved.
Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay (SGP)
John Tavares 2+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Brady Tkachuk 3+ shots on goal
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet and take Tavares to record 2+ shots. He’s averaging 3.5 shots per game in this series, and with added PP time, he should reach this total easily.
We’ll continue to bet on the shots market and take Auston Matthews to register 3+ shots. The Leafs' captain averages 3.89 shots per game and is averaging 4.5 shots per contest in the series.
For the final leg of my SGP, let’s take Brady Tkachuk to record 3+ shots as well. He’s averaging five per game in the series, and I expect the Sens captain to try and will his team to victory on home ice.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Senators odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators live odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 | Ottawa +1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto -107 | Ottawa -105
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Maple Leafs vs Senators trend
The Senators have hit the moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games at home (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Senators
| Location | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date | Thursday, 4-24-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries
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