Another night, another loaded NHL slate with four more playoff games on Thursday, April 24.
The action begins with a pair of Atlantic Division showdowns: the Panthers vs. Lightning, and the Leafs vs. Senators. A pair of Western Conference Game 3s will wrap up the slate, with the Jets looking for a commanding 3-0 lead over the Blues, and the Golden Knights and Wild breaking a 1-1 deadlock.
Here are my favorite NHL picks and parlays spanning tonight’s action.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 24
Panthers moneyline
Maple Leafs-Senators Under 5.5
Jets-Blues Under 5.5
Pick #1: Panthers moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) exited Game 1, and if he suits up for Game 2, I don’t think he’ll be 100%. It’s a huge blow to the Tampa lineup, with Cirelli pacing the club in Corsi For percentage and expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 during the regular season, and his metrics were even better when adjusted for score and venue.
Cirelli also leads Lightning forwards in penalty-kill minutes per game, and the Florida Panthers scored three power-play goals after Cirelli exited Game 1. Tampa Bay was already top-heavy and often rolls with 11 forwards and seven defensemen, so this injury stings all the more.
Of course, the Panthers are also the defending Stanley Cup champs, won the series opener 6-2, and showed no signs of rust after resting multiple players down the stretch. Winger Matthew Tkachuk was on the ice for four goals across just 11:43 of ice time, too.
Finally, I might be overreacting to Game 1 because I liked the Lightning coming into this series, but the Panthers reaffirmed they’re postseason-ready and deeper than the Bolts. Florida will be considerably deeper with Cirelli at less than 100%, if he suits up at all.
Pick #2: Maple Leafs-Senators Under 5.5
There have only been seven goals and 6.86 expected goals at 5-on-5 through the first two games of the series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, and as good as the Toronto power play has looked, it’s not going to continue clicking at a 57.1% success rate.
Additionally, Maple Leafs No. 1 Anthony Stolarz has carried over his elite play from the regular season. After pacing the NHL in save percentage, he’s turned away 57 of 61 shots with 1.93 goals saved above expected to start the series.
Ottawa was also stingy on home ice during the regular season with the eighth-fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It sets starter Linus Ullmark up for a bounceback start after stopping just 36 of 45 shots through the first two games.
Pick #3: Jets-Blues Under 5.5
The Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues combined for just three goals and 4.98 expected goals in Game 2, and playing low-event, defense-first hockey is the proven path to success for both teams.
Winnipeg allowed the fewest goals per game during the regular season, and St. Louis allowed the second-fewest during its sterling 19-4-2 heater to close out the year. Additionally, both teams are missing at least one impact scorer, and two of the best in the business will patrol the blue paint.
Neither Connor Hellebuyck nor Jordan Binnington has been overly sharp to start the series, either. They sport respective .897 and .872 save percentages with -1.22 and -0.51 goals saved above expected. I expect improvement from both in Game 3.
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