I'm putting together a good stretch of winning days after another 2-1 night highlighted by German Marquez opening the first game of a doubleheader.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Friday, which means plenty of pitching markets to choose from.
Here are my favorite MLB player props: pitcher edition for Friday, April 25.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 25
Lugo o4.5 strikeouts (+130)
Young u4.5 hits allowed (+100)
Skenes u17.5 outs (+150)
Today's SP best bets
Astros vs. Royals
The angle: Seth Lugo can get his K stuff on track and is projected to pitch deep today
The move: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130 at BetMGM)
For transparency, I am on Seth Lugo's Under 19.5 outs today because that is a bananas number. The market has driven that down to -130 Under 18.5 outs, but the important thing here for the K prop is a starter projected for more than 18 outs and a big plus-money strikeout prop. This is a small number for the projected workload, and his K% could be on the rise.
Lugo has just 21 Ks over 30 innings but any pitcher with his leash is going to flirt with this number and the price is right. Since 2019, he has more punchouts than innings pitched and gets to face the Houston Astros who are a below-average K% team that also ranks in the bottom half of the league offensively.
It's a home start which is nice, and this projects well to +110. He is 2-1 to the Over on this total across his last three starts.
Orioles vs. Tigers
The angle: There is some rain, a delay is possible, and Brandon Young is not a long-leashed pitcher
The move: Brandon Young Under 4.5 hits allowed (+100 at bet365)
Brandon Young will make his second MLB start as the Baltimore Orioles are thin at pitcher. He lasted just 81 pitches in his debut and might not go much longer Friday night, as he made 18 starts last year and threw just 89 innings. This year at Triple-A, he has thrown 16 innings across three starts. This is not a heavy workload pitcher.
His Under 1.5 walks has already moved from +125 to EV on the angle of a shorter inning. He gave up seven hits in his debut but also walked four which is something he doesn't do. He will be sharper today, but he might still only go 15 outs. THE BAT is projecting 78 pitches today.
Another out for us is the weather. There is rain in the area, and Kevin Roth is calling for a possible delay if the model holds. There is a good chance this game is cancelled, but volume Unders look good here.
Pirates vs. Dodgers
The angle: Paul Skenes is great, but so is +150 vs. the Dodgers
The move: Paul Skenes Under 17.5 outs (+150 at bet365)
It's a Friday night Cy Young battle between Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and I need some action on this game.
Skenes projects for 16.4 outs, per THE BAT and although the right-hander has hit this Over in four straight starts, he has seen some bottom-tier offenses — not the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Pittsburgh Pirates starter has also seen his K% dip to 25% down from 33% last year and his fastball velo is down on average one mph.
Skenes is also coming off a game where he threw 103 pitches, which were a season-high and the most since July 23 — a stretch of 16 starts.
I don't love fading Skenes, but it's the Dodgers, it's Friday night, and it's +150. The 10-mph wind blowing out to Shohei's sweet spot in RCF is just the cherry on top.
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