The Toronto Blue Jays need their bats to get going, and if they can’t do it in Game 1 of their series against the New York Yankees, something has really gone wrong.
That’s because the Yankees hand the ball to Mr. Earned Run Himself, Carlos Carrasco. So, not surprisingly, my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions include a fade of New York’s starter as the player prop to target.
That and more MLB picks for this American League East showdown with first pitch set to be thrown at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 pm ET on Friday, April 25.
Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 earned runs (+100 at bet365)
Everyone knows by now the Toronto Blue Jays have been lacking pop in their bats at this point in the season. And the recent power outage has led to a five-game losing streak which includes coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros.
The New York Yankees, on the other hand, are outslugging everyone to cover the flaws of a struggling starting rotation. It’s led them to a 15-10 record and to the top of the American League East standings. And they’ll have to keep slugging tonight because they hand the ball to the embattled Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco’s tenure with the Yankees has gotten off to a rough start. The veteran right-hander has allowed 15 runs on 23 hits and seven walks in just 20 2/3 innings pitched this season. That works out to a 5.14 expected ERA and a .288 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 20th and 17th percentiles among MLB pitchers, respectively.
He also just isn’t missing a lot of bats. Carrasco ranks in the eighth percentile in whiff rate and the 28th percentile in chase rate, resulting in him striking out just 16.7% of the batters he has faced.
And for all the Blue Jays problems when it comes to hitting home runs they still get on base a decent amount ranking 14th in on base percentage.
Carrasco has surrendered three or more earned runs in four of his five appearances (four starts) this season. The top of the Jays lineup with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Anthony Santander should be able to do enough damage to tag Carrasco with three or more earned runs once again.
Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 earned runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs
Over 9.5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a tough series in Houston, getting just one knock. But he’s still pretty locked in at the dish.
He enters this series ranking in the 92nd percentile or better in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. So bigger hits are coming. Maybe at Yankee Stadium, where he has hit more home runs than anywhere other than Toronto.
I’m not sure he goes yard tonight, even though he’s taken Carlos Carrasco deep before, but I like his chances to get an RBI tonight, so let’s add that to this same-game parlay.
Countering Carrasco is Jose Berrios, who has also struggled so far this season. He has a 4.69 xERA and a .249 xBA, and the Yankees can hit. Let’s round this SGP out the full-game total Over 9.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
Blue Jays vs Yankees live odds
Blue Jays vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +120 | New York -140
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 10| Under 10
Blue Jays vs Yankees trend
The Blue Jays and Yankees have played to the Over in eight of their last nine meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| Date | Friday, 4-25-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Jose Berrios (1-1, 5.02 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 6.53 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Yankees weather
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