The Houston Astros entered this season as betting favorites to win the AL pennant but are off to an ugly 7-17 start. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are 14-9 and took the first contest in this three-game series last night.
My MLB picks investigate why oddsmakers have this interleague clash set as a pick'em. Here are my best free Astros vs. Cubs predictions for April 24.
Astros vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I almost bet the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline last night but was scared off by starter Jordan Wicks and played the Over instead (which missed in a 7-2 Chicago victory). Thankfully, we're getting a similar price for the Cubs today even though they have a more proven pitcher in Jameson Taillon.
Taillon pitched to a 4.84 ERA in his first season with Chicago in 2023 but looked much sharper during the second half, posting a 3.38 ERA over his final 15 starts. The veteran right-hander made his season debut last Friday, limiting the Marlins to three hits across five innings of one-run ball.
The Houston Astros are starting rookie Spencer Arrighetti, who was rocked for seven runs in three innings in his MLB debut two weeks ago. While he showed improvement in his last start, he still ate another loss by giving up four hits and a pair of runs through four innings.
According to MLB Pipeline, Arrighetti was the Astros' No. 3 overall prospect, but he hasn't looked ready for the bigs. The only reason he's up is because Houston's rotation has been decimated with a whopping four starters on the IL. The Astros bullpen has also been hit by the injury bug, which has led to their relievers posting a collective 5.28 ERA with a .269 OBA.
The Astros have a strong lineup on paper and their Statcast analytics are impressive, but that hasn't been translating to offensive success lately. They are averaging just 2.57 runs per game over their last seven and they generally bat worse against righties like Taillon than southpaws.
The Cubs are fourth in the majors in barrel rate and average exit velocity while ranking 10th in hard-hit rate. They are plating 5.48 runs per game, bumping up to 6.27 at home. With the Cubs hitting the ball better and having the more reliable pitching, grabbing them at a pick'em price at home seems like a no-brainer.
Astros vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Nico Hoerner 1+ hits
Jose Altuve 1+ hits
Nico Hoerner went 0-for-5 on Tuesday night but he had been red-hot before that with a hit in seven of his previous eight games, batting .429 over that span. He also has a track record of excelling at Wrigley Field, batting .307 at home since the start of the 2021 season.
Altuve has been one of the best hitters in the majors for a decade and he leads the Stros with a .357 batting average. The eight-time All-Star has gone 4-for-11 against Taillon in his career and has a BA of .347 in 15 games at Wrigley.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Cubs odds
Astros vs Cubs live odds
Astros vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-200) | Chicago -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | Chicago -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Astros vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- While the ML and total haven't moved off the opening numbers, backing the Cubs on the RL has shifted from +165 to +180.
- Houston was expected to be a World Series contender but its pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and has the second-worst ERA in the majors (5.16).
- The Astros have struggled to generate runs lately but are third in the majors in xBA (.269) and fifth in xSLG (.431).
- Taillon has made three starts against Houston since 2021, pitching to a 6.61 ERA and allowing 20 hits across 16 1/3 innings.
Astros vs Cubs trend
The Astros have only cashed the First Five Innings Moneyline in 38 of their last 95 games (-28.30 Units / -21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Cubs
Astros vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, Marquee |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (0-2, 11.57 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (1-0, 1.80 ERA) |
Astros vs Cubs latest injuries
Astros vs Cubs weather
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