A potential playoff preview begins tonight at Camden Yards as the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros and Framber Valdez, who is coming off his no-hitter vs. the Guardians. The Orioles sit as slight home dogs with a total of 8.5 leaning to the Under.
With the Orioles facing another lefty and loving the matchup game, should bettors be looking into the best pinch-hit risks of the day and hitting those Under 0.5 hit markets for big plus money?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Orioles on Tuesday, August 8.
Astros vs Orioles odds
Astros vs Orioles predictions
The Baltimore Orioles are one of the best teams to target Under hit props when they face a left-handed starter as this is a club that loves to pinch hit — even early in games.
There are two candidates today to target for Under 0.5 hits and that's right-handed hitter Ryan McKenna at +125 and James McCann at +160. Both are decent pinch-hit risks (McKenna at 35% and McCann at 24%, per THE BAT), but McCann is showing a little more value with a 14% difference in his projected total vs. his implied total.
First off, the lead-footed catcher has to face an elite lefty in Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez, who is coming off a no-hitter and has held McCann hitless in four prior at-bats.
Secondly, the price is much better for a batter hitting .218 on the season and likely hitting out of the No. 8 spot in the lineup. THE BAT is projecting just 3.44 plate appearances for McCann tonight but there is a real chance of seeing three or fewer at-bats for the catcher/DH.
Some books are as short as +135, so getting this at the best price of +160 at bet365 and PointsBet is the better play of the two Under hit props. McKenna has a better win probability but McCann is showing a better +EV. I'd play this to +145.
My best bet: James McCann Under 0.5 hits (+160 at bet365)
Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay
James McCann Under 0.5 hits (+160)
Under 8.5 (-125)
Orioles ML (+110)
The true odds here are +880 so the book isn't taking a big hold at all.
McCann could see two plate appearances before he gets pulled so I'm not worried too much about his correlation to the Orioles moneyline as I feel Baltimore has the edge later in the game.
Most books have moved to the 8 as each starter has been getting groundball outs, which should help negate those double-digit winds blowing out to right field. Late runs could be hard to find in general as both teams were off yesterday and enter the series opener with fresh bullpens.
Baltimore is one of the best home teams, has the most wins vs. teams with a winning record, and has the most wins out of any team in baseball in games decided by two or fewer runs.
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Astros vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Orioles and Astros open up a big three-game set at Camden Yards tonight as the Orioles currently have a three-game lead in the AL East while the Astros are trailing the Rangers for the lead in the West by three games.
Houston has been one of the best road teams in baseball with a 33-24 SU record, but they’ve failed to beat good teams consistently with a 28-33 SU record vs. .500 teams or better. Conversely, the Orioles have handled winning teams better with a 44-33 SU record which is the best mark in all of baseball.
Baltimore, winners of four straight and seven of their last eight, opened as a +105 dog but have gotten even longer moving to +110 early this morning but I might play contrarian today to the market movement.
The Orioles are a league-best 21-7 SU since July 5 and have shown a knack for winning close games with a 34-17 SU record in contests decided by two or fewer runs — the best mark in MLB. A lot of that has to do with its elite bullpen that ranks first in WAR at Fangraphs by a large margin and comes into tonight fully rested after getting Monday off.
Grayson Rodriguez is playing as the underdog at home to Valdez, but I’m happy taking the Orioles as a home dog here at +110 as the bullpen advantage they have is substantial.
Houston closer Ryan Presley (questionable) has been shaky all year and Baltimore has no issues going to its pen early if it feels the game is getting away from its starters. Valdez had some rough numbers prior to the no-hitter vs. a weak Cleveland offense and he is also on extra rest, which sometimes isn’t the best for routine monsters like starting pitchers. His career ERA is higher on six days or more rest than the usual five.
Houston has the starting pitching advantage but it certainly seems overvalued here vs. an improved Rodriguez and the league’s best bullpen.
This Over 8.5 is also hard to get excited about. There are some decent 11-mph winds blowing out to right field with 81-degree temperatures, but with both teams having a day off yesterday, bettors will be seeing a pair of rested bullpens.
Valdez is also an elite groundball pitcher while Rodriguez has augmented his groundball rate since rejoining the rotation and is getting 48% of his outs in play on the ground, which is a big improvement on his early-season numbers.
I’d take the Under 8.5 if still available as most books are moving south on this total toward the 8 where I think it will ultimately close.
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Trend to know
The Orioles have hit the moneyline in 69 of their last 109 games (+29.15 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles
Astros vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA): Valdez has found his Cy Young form again following a rough patch where he posted a 7.29 ERA across four July starts as the lefty is coming off a 93-pitch no-hitter of the Guardians seven days ago. He’s on extra rest where he has a 3.73 ERA over 100-plus innings across his career. He carries a 141/33 K:BB rate over 135 innings and 21 starts with 11 home runs allowed. The Astros are 12-9 when the groundball pitcher starts and THE BAT is projecting 101 pitches, 17.7 outs, 5.86 strikeouts, and 2.53 earned runs.
Grayson Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09 ERA): Rodriguez will be making his 15th start of his rookie season and fifth since being recalled. Since rejoining the rotation, the blue-chipper has a 3.57 ERA, a 20/8 K:BB rate over 22-plus innings, and is averaging 93 pitches per start. He has a solid 30% CSW rate over his last four starts and the Orioles are 9-5 SU when he starts this year. THE BAT projects 92 pitches, 15.9 outs, 5.40 strikeouts, and 2.73 earned runs.
