The two betting favorites in American League Cy Young odds will battle tonight as the Houston Astros and Justin Verlander are slight -125 favorites vs. Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox.
Cease has feasted on many weak opponents this season and might have too much market confidence heading into tonight’s epic battle. Find out where my best bet lies in tonight’s free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. White Sox.
Astros vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros opened as -125 favorites across the board and only one book (FanDuel) has moved the line to -130. After opening at 7, some books are starting to leak to the Under. Houston closed as -140 favorites last night with a total of 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 8/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, August 16, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Chicago, AT&T Sportsnet
Astros vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (15-3, 1.85 ERA): Verlander enters tonight as the betting favorite for the AL Cy Young. He has a dominant 1.16 ERA over his last seven starts and will look to avenge a rough outing versus the White Sox where the righty gave up a season-high seven runs (four earned) in a 7-0 loss on June 18.
The Astros have not lost back-to-back Verlander starts all season (coming off an 8-4 loss to the Rangers in his last outing) and as good as he has been at home (2.18 ERA), he’s been even better on the road with a 1.58 ERA and a .210 batting average against.
Dylan Cease (12-5, 1.96 ERA): The Dylan Cease noise might be at a season-high as he owns a 0.84 ERA over his last seven starts but this is still a starter who has taken advantage of a weak division and has seen a soft schedule. The best offenses he’s seen have been the Blue Jays and Yankees once apiece and New York tagged him for six runs in an abbreviated start. Now, the strikeout-dependent pitcher will have to face a Houston lineup that strikes out at the second lowest rate in baseball.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Astros are 6-0 SU in Verlander’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. White Sox
Astros vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It took one inning and possibly a poor pitching change for the White Sox to break through yesterday vs. the Astros as they plated all four of their runs in the eighth inning in a 4-2 victory. Reliever Rafael Montero was responsible for all four runs scored (one inherited), meaning the White Sox had no answer for Houston starter Jose Urquidy, and that trend should continue into today.
Justin Verlander is the betting favorite for the AL Cy Young for a reason. Despite missing all of last season thanks to Tommy John, he is cruising with a sub-2.00 ERA and will get to face a Chicago lineup without Tim Anderson or Luis Robert. This has been a league-average offense all season and it's an even easier lineup to navigate today without its two top-of-the-order hitters.
Justin Verlander is the first player in MLB history to lead the Majors in wins (15) and ERA (1.85) at age 39 or older.
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) August 16, 2022
H/T @MLBNetwork pic.twitter.com/v4d1Rws5FW
Urquidy allowed just six hits and no walks over 7 2-3 innings last night as a -130 favorite and now Verlander is a -125 favorite thanks to a tougher mound matchup in Cease. But has the Chicago starter feasted on some of the worst lineups in baseball all season inflating his value in this matchup?
Cease is an elite starter, but he lives in the weakest division in baseball and has seen just four offenses (Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Twins) that sit in the Top-10 in slugging and wRC+. In those four games, he’s allowed 12 runs over 23 innings. Statistically, he has been one of the best pitchers of late, with a 0.84 ERA over his last seven starts, but 14 of his 24 starts this season have come against Bottom-10 offenses.
Houston is one of the best lineups in baseball and has had its way with Cease over a small sample size of three games (two last season). The Astros have tagged the right-hander for 11 earned runs over 15 innings.
No team in the American League has been better than the Astros at beating good teams with a 32-18 SU record versus clubs with a winning record.
I think Verlander is the better of the two pitchers in this spot and the offensive advantage the Astros have is worth what Chicago has in its home field.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Urquidy and Johnny Cueto threw up donuts for the majority of their innings yesterday in a game that saw zero runs scored from the bottom of the first to the bottom of the eighth. Bettors will now see the two best arms in the AL and although the total sits at 7, I’m leaning slightly on the Under, but likely will stay off.
Combined, the clubs are 95-128-3 to the Under on the season while Verlander is 5-16 O/U through his 21 starts. Cease and Verlander are two of three pitchers in baseball with a sub-2.00 ERA and if this were a playoff game, I’d expect this total to sit at 6.5.
The only thing possibly stopping this total from going lower is the field condition at Guaranteed Rate Field where double-digit winds are blowing out to right field. Both pitchers have ground ball rates below 43% and could be susceptible to the long ball with right field playing a little shorter tonight.
Cease can also get in trouble with command and has a walk rate twice as high as his counterpart. Houston is one of the highest BB% teams in baseball and its lack of strikeouts also favors runs.
I’m happy to get down on the side but am passing on the total. The lean is certainly on the Under 7, though while some books are already on 6.5.
Prediction: Under 7 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Cease hype is at a precipice that may be inflating his markets. He’s seen plenty of Bottom-10 offenses and most projections had him as a mid-3.00 ERA pitcher this season after posting a 3.91 ERA over 165-plus innings in 2021.
He relies heavily on the punchout, which, at a 33% rate, is the second highest mark in baseball. He’ll face one of the most disciplined teams in the Astros, who have the best CSW mark in the league at 26%.
Cease’s strikeout market has hit 6.5 at some markets but BetMGM and Bwin have his Under 7.5 Ks at a reasonable -150.
THE BAT projects him for 91 pitches, 5.35 innings pitched, and 6.02 strikeouts. He’ll have an extreme-hitter umpire in Edwin Moscoso, as well.
With the market high on the Chicago starter, we’re fading the Cy Young candidate and expecting him to have a tougher matchup versus a very good and disciplined Houston lineup.
Pick: Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-150 at BetMGM)
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