The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will begin a series in the Sunshine State this evening.
While most of the country sees a reduction in expected offense with cool temperatures, it will be in the 80s tonight in Florida. That's opened up some opportunities in the prop market, which is where my Yankees vs. Rays predictions are heading.
Below, I bring you my MLB picks on Thursday, April 17th.
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My Yankees vs Rays best bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
If it weren't for recent form, you'd probably find me backing the Tampa Bay Rays moneyline in this spot. Line movement has gone in that direction, and I agree. A decisive pitching mismatch is at play here, and I expect that to be exploited.
My fair price made Tampa Bay around -125, and because of that, they'll find a spot in my same-game parlay. However, I couldn't get there for my best bet. The offense, sans a few players, has struggled over the last few games, making me cautious even against the most exploitable mismatches.
Better value is also found in the prop market, and we captured it with Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money. A prop that I projected at -132.
Once again, a stadium turned into a hitters paradise plays a part here. We've mentioned the temperatures, but the winds will be blowing out at a decent clip, giving the ball some nice carry. Not only that, but the low fences have also bumped up the offensive production. Aranda is in a perfect spot to take advantage of this.
He'll be in the fourth spot of this lineup, a prime position to drive runs in, but that's a mere footnote to the matchup. Will Warren grabs the mound for the New York Yankees and has started this season quite shaky — a continuation of what we saw last season. A barrel and a hard hit rate set in the Bottom 20% of baseball looms quite large here because few players are hitting the ball harder than Aranda.
He'll come in today with barrel and hard-hit rates in the Top 5% of the sport. Warren has shown that he's willing to challenge hitters, which makes me think Aranda could cash this with one swing of the bat. Oh yeah, it certainly helps that he'll be (as usual) batting left-handed, and there have been some stark platoon splits for Warren so far this season when facing lefties.
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Jonathan Aranda 2+ total bases
Rays moneyline
Taj Bradley 7+ strikeouts
We had to pivot to Aranda's base total for our same-game parlay because our best bet prop cannot be used in same-game parlay. It effectively works the same as our best bet.
We added the Rays moneyline, as we teased above. Despite the Rays' recent offensive dip, they should get going today. Warren has allowed too much contact this season, and the Rays do an effective job of putting the ball in play.
We also like Bradley's matchup against the Yankees hitters so much that we're taking him to go over his strikeout total.
The Yankees' approach at the plate has been better than it was a season ago, but they are still a very free-swinging team. He went over this number the first time he faced New York last year, and he can replicate that today with a few additions in the lineup who struggle against high velocity.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +105 | Tampa Bay -125
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs Rays trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 96 of their last 176 games (+15.35 Units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida |
| Date | Thursday, 4-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (1-0, 5.14 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Taj Bradley (2-0, 3.71 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
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