We have a massive slate of day baseball going into the evening, and we have you covered in the prop markets.
We're starting with a fresh face in Kansas City and ending with one of baseball's brightest stars in Baltimore. From walks to total bases, we have you covered.
Here are my three free MLB player props and MLB picks for Friday, April 18.
Best MLB player props today
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India Over 0.5 walks (+180 at bet365) -
Martinez Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at DraftKings) -
Henderson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100 at BetMGM)
MLB props for April 18
Jonathan India Over 0.5 walks (+180 at bet365)
It's a riveting culmination of elements that have added value to this prop. Using raw data from just this season, I estimate the fair price to be around +125.
While it's unlikely the edge is that large, it does point to how differently things have gone this season for the two players involved, and if those trends continue, how much value could be on the board.
Jackson Jobe takes the mound for the Detroit Tigers and has had some issues this season with walks. What wasn't a problem last season has become a concern over three starts, and he enters today with a walk rate in the Bottom 20% of baseball. Jonathan India counters that nicely with a new patient approach at the plate.
He arrives at this game walking in just over 45% of his games this season. He's never been great at this area in his game, but has appeared to make strides over the last few seasons. His recent improvements, coupled with Jobe's recent pitching trends, provide significant value in this spot.
I also like having the extra feather in our cup of this: The slider has been Jobe's go-to put-away pitch throughout his career. That pitch, in particular, has been the least chased by India this season.
Angel Martinez Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at DraftKings)
Young Angel Martinez has started the season on fire for the Cleveland Guardians. Just look at the splits: .444/.667/1.088 — quite good. We like him to keep it going, which amounts to a favorable matchup.
Luis Ortiz will man the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening, and while he hasn't been as bad as the 6+ ERA indicates, nothing about him has been particularly special this season. He enters with a barrel rate and a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 30% of baseball, which is slightly improved from what he's been over his career.
With Martinez hitting the ball so hard, this price is tough to turn down. He'll come into this game with limited data but a strong track record against the two pitches he's likely to see the most of. Ortiz has used the fastball and the slider to make up over 70% of his pitching arsenal.
Martinez leads both in batting average and hard-hit rate against the fastball amongst Cleveland players, while being second in batting average and first in hard-hit rate against the slider. We like him to stay hot here.
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100 at BetMGM)
Gunnar Henderson hit his first homer of the season last night against the Guardians, and we like his potential to keep that up in this spot.
THE BAT X projects Henderson for just over two hits + runs + RBI today and notes that the wind blowing out to left field will give him a nice advantage. We agree with that assessment, not to mention that Great American Ballpark is a very hitter-friendly place to play.
We also like the starting pitching matchup that Henderson will see. Andrew Abbott is a strong starting pitcher, and we're fans of him for the long term, but like any young pitcher, the lefty has exploitable flaws. Henderson is well suited to expose some of them, too.
As with any heavy fastball thrower, Abbott's barrel rate is a concern. It's ranked in the Bottom 30% of baseball for back-to-back seasons and is likely to continue for a third. You don't need me to tell you this, but few are better in the sport at barrelling up a ball than Henderson.
That alone gives him a considerable edge. Add the fact that he has the highest hard-hit rate among Orioles players against the fastball (and an opposing pitcher's willingness to challenge him with that), and you have an enticing play.
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