Astros vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Failure to Launch

A pair of division-leading AL teams will kick off the second half of the MLB season Friday night when the Houston Astros visit the Chicago White Sox.

Chicago will be looking to avenge a four-game sweep in Houston as the Astros outscored the AL Central-leading White Sox 27-7 back in June. Both the Astros and White Sox are the betting favorites to win the American League at +250 each.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox for Friday, July 16.

Astros vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, July 16, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSCH, ATT SportsNet-SW

Astros vs White Sox odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Houston is a -130 favorite at 5 p.m. ET, after opening -120 at TwinSpires Sportsbook. The White Sox are taking 54 percent of moneyline tickets and the Astros 55 percent of moneyline dollars. "Good two-way action on this game," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 8.5 to 9, with 72 percent of tickets/58 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Astros vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Lance McCullers Jr. (6-2, 2.94 ERA): Lance McCullers wrapped up his first half having allowed exactly two runs in five straight games. The walks are still an issue with the right-hander (41 in 79 innings) but hits have been hard to come by for batters facing the Houston starter, as McCullers has surrendered just 57 hits all season. Even with all the quality outings, Houston has still lost five of his 14 starts this year.

Dylan Cease (7-4, 4.11 ERA): Cease’s ERA is inflated thanks to a trio of extremely bad starts where the righty gave up at least five earned runs, but in his other 14 starts the Chicago starter has allowed two or fewer runs 12 times. Cease doesn’t go deep into games thanks to a high strikeout rate, but the White Sox are 11-4 SU in his last 15 turns. One of those bad starts was in Houston where the pitcher gave up six earned runs on four hits over 3 1-3 innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Alex Bregman 3B (out), Carlos Correa SS (Out), Michael Brantley OF (questionable). 
White Sox: Jake Lamb 3B (out), Eloy Jiminez OF (out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Astros’ last four games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. White Sox.

Moneyline pick

The White Sox finished the first half of the 2021 season with the best record in the American League at 54-35 SU. They were up 7.4u on the year heading into the break, on a five-game winning streak and winners of 10 of their last 13. Chicago will be looking to avenge a four-game sweeping at the hands of the Astros back in June where Houston took all four games at home and outscored Chicago 27-7.

Friday’s starter, Lance McCullers, got the best of the Sox in that series, but looking closer at his road splits, the right-hander may have a harder time on the Southside.

McCullers is 4-0 on the road this year with a 2.93 ERA, which looks unbelievable, but he also carries a 1.426 WHIP thanks to 58 walks + hits over 38 innings. All those runners are sure to catch up to the Houston starter, who allowed opponents to hit .255 in July.

Also in Chicago’s favor are the injuries to the Astros. Already without Alex Bregman, Houston will likely be missing Carlos Correa, while Michael Brantley missed the All-Star game due to an injury. Houston was already struggling to score before the break, being held to one or fewer runs in three of its final four games, so possibly missing three top-of-the-order bats is a big deal.

With the White Sox owning a 31-14 SU record at home this year and looking to bounce back after losing all four games to Houston in June, we have no problem taking the home side at plus money.

PREDICTION: Chicago ML (+125)

Over/Under pick

The Astros went 46-37 O/U in the first half, which was a tie for the second-best Over record in baseball. A lot of that was on the back of the league’s best offense that was scoring 5.45 runs per game (1st) and collecting 9.21 hits per game (1st). However, the offense scored just 53 runs over its last 16 games (3.3 runs per game) as regression and injuries are bringing the Astros’ bats back to Earth.

The White Sox rotation leads the MLB in WAR and has a 3.39 ERA which is the second-lowest in the AL next to the Astros. Their 27.6 percent K% is the best mark in the AL. The Chicago relievers are just as good at sending batters back to the dugout with a 27.4 strikeout percentage and a sub-4.00 ERA.

Speaking of relievers, the Houston bullpen was a huge factor in the Astros’ four-game sweep of Chicago in June. The Astros’ relievers tossed nine innings in the four-game series and didn’t allow a single run while giving up just three hits, three walks and striking out 15. If the Houston relievers bring this game Friday night, late runs will be hard to come by for Chicago.

The Astros were held to a single run in three of their last four games before the break. In those three losses, Houston managed just 12 hits before hanging eight runs in the half’s last game. With the absence of their middle-of-the-order hitters, and McCullers’ ability to limit hits, we don’t see either team coming out of the break swinging a hot stick.

PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)

Astros vs White Sox betting card

• Chicago ML (+125)
• Under 9 (-110)

Picks made on 7/16/2021 at 4:30 a.m. ET

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