Two of the most disappointing teams in baseball face off on Saturday night as the Chicago White Sox host the Houston Astros. The Astros are two games above .500 but haven't looked like the powerhouse they've been the last several years while the White Sox are near the bottom of the standings in the awful AL Central.
The 'Stros took the first contest in this three-game series yesterday and MLB betting lines opened with them as +105 road underdogs for today. Here are my best free Astros vs. White Sox MLB picks and predictions for May 13.
Astros vs White Sox odds
Astros vs White Sox predictions
It's tough to handicap this contest since both teams have struggled at the dish and have a couple of starters that are tough to have faith in.
While Houston's history indicates that it should be better at the plate, Chicago is also due for better play from starter Dylan Cease.
Cease has struggled over the last five games, but he was one of the best pitchers in the World last year when he posted a 2.20 ERA and racked up 227 punchouts in 184 innings. He also began this season by pitching a gem against the Astros where he allowed just two hits and fanned 10 batters in 6 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, the Astros are sending the inexperienced Brandon Bielak to the hill. Bielak has given up nine earned runs in 21 innings over the last two years and might be better suited for a role out of the bullpen.
Bielak had a 4.12 ERA with Triple-A Sugar Land this season and posted a 3.15 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in 88 2/3 innings at that level last year. It's pretty clear that he wouldn't have even been recalled from Triple-A were it not for injuries to Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers, and Jose Urquidy.
Despite Cease's play over the last month, he's the stronger starter in this matchup. That, combined with home-field advantage and a slumping Houston offense, has me backing the White Sox on a short line.
My best bet: White Sox moneyline (-120 at bet365)
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Astros vs White Sox moneyline analysis
The Astros beat the White Sox 5-1 last night to improve to 20-18 on the year. That defeat dropped Chicago's record to 13-27, which is the third-worst mark in the majors.
The White Sox made the postseason in 2020 and 2021 and were a .500 team last year. However, they've struggled this year thanks to a massive decline in production from their rotation.
That issue is headlined by Cease, who was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but has a 5.58 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in seven starts this year.
After years of being one of the best offensive teams in the majors, the Astros are just 27th in the bigs with an OPS of .676.
The White Sox haven't been much better at the dish, posting an OPS of .679 however they did get a boost to their lineup yesterday when Yoan Moncada returned last night after spending a month on the IL.
One distinct advantage that the Astros have is in their bullpen. Houston's relievers rank seventh in the majors in ERA (3.35) and eighth in WHIP (1.19) while Chicago's are 29th in both ERA (6.17) and WHIP (1.64).
Astros vs White Sox Over/Under analysis
Cease limited batters to a 31.2% hard-hit rate last season, but that number has jumped to 53% this year — the third-worst number for any pitcher with over 100 batted ball events. Thankfully for White Sox fans, he'll be facing an Astros lineup that hasn't been hitting well.
Yordan Alvarez has been reliable for the Astros, but hasn't been as dominant as last year, and the absence of Jose Altuve has been noticeable. Meanwhile, two-time All-Star Alex Bregman is in the midst of a slump batting just 7-51 with two extra-base hits in his last 14 games.
The White Sox lineup has been even less fearsome. Catcher Yasmani Grandal leads the team with a modest batting average of .270 batting. Luis Robert and Jake Burger have been Chicago's biggest hitters. Neither has been that impressive and Burger is currently sidelined by an oblique injury.
The advanced stats indicate that positive regression isn't likely for either side. Houston is 24th in the majors in hard-hit rate (36.5%) and 27th in barrel rate (6.2%) while Chicago is 26th in hard-hit rate (35.9%) and 22nd in barrel rate (7.2%).
Astros vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, May 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Bielak (0-1, 4.15 ERA): The 27-year-old has played sparingly in his first four years in the bigs and was recalled from Triple-A at the start of this month.
In his first game with the 'Stros this season, he limited the Giants to a pair of hits across four innings but also walked three batters which led to two runs. In his previous start last Sunday, he scattered 10 hits and surrendered three runs (two earned) before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning.
Dylan Cease (2-2, 5.58 ERA): Cease began this season by pitching a gem against the Astros where he allowed just two hits and fanned 10 batters in 6 1/3 innings. In fact, he had a sizzling 1.65 ERA with an OBA of .102 through his first three starts of the year but has pitched to a woeful 8.25 ERA with a .340 OBA in five games since.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Houston's last six games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. White Sox
