While the New York Yankees have lived up to expectations in 2024, the Houston Astros have been an unmitigated disaster.
With the MLB odds listing Houston as underdogs ahead of tonight's first pitch in the Bronx, I'll break down our latest MLB picks in my Astros vs. Yankees predictions for Wednesday, May 8.
Astros vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+130 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The biggest culprit of the Houston Astros' downfall this season has been pitching, as the team ranks 27th in ERA and 28th in xFIP.
That likely won’t improve much tonight, with rookie Spencer Arrighetti taking the ball. The 24-year-old right-hander is making his fifth career start and has allowed 15 earned runs in just 16 1/3 innings.
I'm expecting no shortage of runs from either team, with Kyle Tucker being at the forefront of the offense for Houston. The Astros superstar is hitting .310 with a 1.174 OPS over his last 20 games, which includes eight home runs and 17 RBI.
Five of Tucker’s last eight hits have been dingers and he mashes his fellow southpaws, hitting .306 with a 1.047 OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season.
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez is another Astros’ lefty slugger who boasts great splits against left-handed pitching. Alvarez owns a .333 batting average and a .951 OPS vs. southpaws, and three of his seven home runs have come against lefties.
All the while, Juan Soto is now the favorite in the AL MVP odds, entering tonight's matchup hitting .329 with a .996 OPS and eight home runs. Against right-handers like Arrighetti, those numbers bump up to .333 and 1.037, and Soto has reached 2+ total bases in four of his last seven games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees live odds
Astros vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-170) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | New York -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened this matchup as -140 home favorites and have been gradually bet up to -155.
- The Yankees took the opener of this series in a 10-3 blowout and are reasonable favorites considering the edge in starting pitching. However, Rodon's ability to implode has me staying away from backing New York on the moneyline.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and the Over has been hammered, now sitting at 9.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Astros vs Yankees trend
The Astros have hit the game total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Amazon |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 8.27 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (2-2, 3.68 ERA) |
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
Astros vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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