Baseball has already officially started, but today is the real Opening Day, with a healthy 14-game slate on tap.
With that, we’ll be here all year to deliver one of the newest and easily settled bets in baseball: the No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning.
A total of six outs into a game to determine if you take the bag or give it up, all centered around if you think the two teams will combine for 1+ runs in the first inning or not.
Check out our first foray into these free MLB picks and best YRFI/NRFI picks below, starting with an AL East tilt involving a pair of pitchers who got knocked around a ton in 2024 and wrapping with last year's best offense in one of the day's nightcaps.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
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YRFI (-108 at ProphetX)
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NRFI (-140 at ProphetX)
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YRFI (-106 at ProphetX)
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NRFI/YRFI bets for March 27
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI (-108 at ProphetX)
The Baltimore Orioles ranked 10th last season in first-inning runs, crossing home plate at a 28.05% clip.
That happens when you boast an elite offense like the O’s had, ranking fourth in runs, second in homers, and fourth in RBI, while inside the Top 4 in both slugging and OPS.
They’ll also be facing off against Toronto Blue Jays Opening Day starter Jose Berrios, who’s trying to move past an uneven 2024 season.
Yes, he was 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA, but Berrios was tagged for 31 home runs. His day splits show a 3.90 ERA.
Toronto is on the verge of a major breakup with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what better way for Blue Jays fans to lament losing one of their homegrowns (eventually) than him showing out right away?
Righty Zach Eflin is a decent opportunity to do so. Eflin’s 4.30 ERA in day games was his highest in 2024, and he gave up 11 of his 22 home runs under the afternoon sun.
The Blue Jays were just 24th in first-inning runs last year, but I like either club to get on the board early.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-140 at ProphetX)
Two games into defense of their World Series title and the Los Angeles Dodgers have yet to cross a run in the first inning.
It’s going to be three straight, and that’s because of the pitching matchup. The Detroit Tigers will be trotting out lefty Tarik Skubal, who is coming off his best year as a pro, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA en route to winning the AL Cy Young.
He finished last season giving up no earned runs in three of his last four starts, and I expect LA to take a few innings to get accustomed to him.
Detroit was just outside the Top 10 in first-inning runs, delivering at a 27.81% rate, but they’ll also be in tough with Dodgers starter Blake Snell.
Only four Tigers have at-bats against the lefty Snell in their careers. He didn’t look great in spring training with a 7.71 ERA, but the last time we saw him, he went back-to-back starts without surrendering a run to close out 2024.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: YRFI (-106 at ProphetX)
We’ll wrap with the team most proficient in cashing in first-inning runs in 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks. They converted runs in the opening inning at a 38.89% clip, one of only six teams to touch the 30% plateau.
The D-Backs get a shot at Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele, who got batted around in his one start this season in a loss to the Dodgers.
Steele was tagged for five hits and five earned runs in four innings of work in Tokyo, and while he didn’t give up a run in the first inning, Arizona could take advantage in his second start.
No fewer than 10 Arizona batters have faced him at least three times, and six have batting averages above .300 in the small sample.
Chicago could find a run on their end, too, as righty Zac Gallen wasn’t exactly shutting things down for Arizona the last time we saw him. In his final 15 starts of 2024, he surrendered at least three runs in nine.
In 10 of those starts, at least one run was scored in the first inning, either by the D-Backs or the opponent.
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