Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Monday, September 16.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 10
Boyd u5.5 strikeouts (+120)
Manaea u4.5 hits allowed (+130)
Estes u16.5 outs recorded (-105)
Suarez o4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Today’s best SP angles
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
The angle: Matthew Boyd is pitching above his numbers and his strikeout market is inflated.
Matthew Boyd is not a 2.18 ERA pitcher. He might be a K/inning guy, but his .238 BABIP is unsustainable and his good luck could dry up tonight vs. the Minnesota Twins. His out market is leaning to the Under 17.5 but it's his strikeouts I want to fade today at the current price.
The Cleveland Guardians starter's K total is sitting at 5.5 and paying an attractive +120 to the Under. He projects for 15.7 outs and 5.2 strikeouts, per Covers' MLB player props projections, and had a strikeout total of 4.5 just two starts ago. The Twins are striking out at an average rate over the last 30 days so the matchup isn't elite while the Guardians have four middle relievers available tonight.
Boyd's pitch count should be in the 85-95 range and his numbers should fall back to his career averages. I'd play this Under to even money.
The move: Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
The angle: Seam Manaea could be scaled back after a hefty 109-pitch outing.
Sean Manaea has been unreal since late July with the New York Mets going 9-1 SU across his last 10 starts where he is pitching to a 2.73 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. He is coming off a season-high 109 pitches, however, which is likely a number he doesn't get to today. THE BAT is projecting a low-90s pitch count today and with that possible lower workload, there is value in his Under 4.5 hits allowed at plus money.
Even if he does go 20+ outs for the seventh straight start, he can hit this Under as he is 1-5 O/U on this total across those six games. He's in elite form and facing a bad offense in the Washington Nationals, making this Under 4.5 hits allowed at +130 is an easy choice. He projects for 4.7 and I'd buy this to +115.
The move: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 hits allowed (+130 at bet365)
Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs
The angle: Joey Estes projected pitch count makes it tough to get through the sixth inning.
Oakland A's starter Joey Estes has gone Over 16.5 outs in five of his last six outings but he has been overly efficient, throwing 88 or fewer pitches in four of those. He isn't a 95-100 pitch starter and has a tough matchup vs. the slugging Chicago Cubs on the road today.
Covers' projections has him going 14.7 outs and THE BAT has a pitch count in the mid-80s. He has averaged 87 pitches since the beginning of August and the Cubs could certainly knock him around as Estes has given up nine home runs over those eight starts since August 1.
I wouldn't pay too much tax here on the Under 16.5, but -105 is a buy. At -120, I'm likely off.
The move: Joey Estes Under 16.5 outs recorded (-105 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Ranger Suarez is stretched back out and should see 90+ pitches again.
Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez has made four starts since returning from the IL and has gone 72, 78, 82, and 88 pitches. He should get to the 90s today, but the books are pricing him like a lower workload pitcher with a K market of 4.5 paying -115 to the Over.
Suarez is a K/inning guy and should go five or more frames. The Milwaukee Brewers are a Top-10 K% team over the last 30 days while Suarez is 15-9 O/U on this prop on the season. He is being priced by his shorter outings but should be back to a full leash today vs. the Brewers. He projects for 5.36 Ks today.
The move: Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
