Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, September 19.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 19
Webb u1.5 walks allowed (+120)
Rocker o4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Cabrera u5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Pfaadt u1.5 walks allowed (+128)
Myers u1.5 walks allowed (+150)
Today’s best SP angles
San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Logan Webb is an elite command pitcher and is paying plus money for Under 1.5 walks.
Logan Webb can have an Under 1.5 walks allowed price sometimes at -160 but that number has jumped to +120, which is as high as I've seen in since the spring. In his last start, he was around -140 for the same Under. The matchup isn't working against him either as the Tampa Bay Rays walk at one of the lowest rates in baseball over the last 30 days.
Webb's walk rate is up a little this year but this is still a guy who has put together a 1.89 BB/9 over his last 600 innings. Just using those numbers, it's hard to come to this +120 price, which I'd buy to even money. Any time Webb is +100 or longer for his Under 1.5 walks, it's a buy for me — regardless of the matchup. However, today he has one of the best BBA matchups a pitcher can have. This will shorten up.
The move: Logan Webb Under 1.5 walks allowed (+120 at BetMGM)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers
The angle: Kumar Rocker had seven strikeouts in his debut and has a 4.5 K total today.
Rookie Texas Rangers pitcher Kumar Rocker went 12 outs in his MLB debut last week, striking out seven Mariners on 74 pitches. Although I don't expect that pitch count to increase much, his modest 4.5 K total is an Over bet today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Rocker posted an eye-popping 47 Ks over just 29 2/3 innings across seven games in Double- and Triple-A following Tommy John. He has not lasted longer than five innings in any of those games and likely won't today, but he showed he can top five punchouts in an abbreviated start.
Covers' MLB prop projections have him pegged for 5.19 strikeouts today and this is buy for me at -125/-130 or better. For someone with a swinging strike rate of 23% in his first MLB start, this is a low total even at 75 projected pitches.
The move: Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins
The angle: Edward Cabrera is in a bad spot vs a great offense and his K market isn't reflective of it.
Edward Cabrera is better than a K/inning guy. However, his 88 pitches per start handcuff him to an average of under five innings. His big strikeout games have also been padded on the backs of some of the worst K% teams in baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a different breed and should send him packing around 15 outs.
Cabrera is projected for 13.8 total outs on 84 pitches and 4.59 strikeouts. He has completed 18 outs just five times over 18 starts this year and is coming off just his third 100-pitch outing of the year. In the two other games following 100 or pitches, he has totaled just five Ks in 9+ innings.
Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers are still a Top-3 offense striking out at the eighth-lowest rate in baseball. Cabrera might be my most profitable pitcher to fade this year as he pads his numbers vs great matchups but falters vs. good lineups. Buy this to -135/-140.
The move: Edward Cabrera Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Both starters' Under 1.5 walks allowed is priced too high.
Brandon Pfaadt does not have a long leash and his cluster of walks over his last five games has driven his Under 1.5 market too high. This is a pitcher with a 2.1 BB/9 who isn't expected to go more than 16 outs today. Getting his Under 1.5 walks, even in a tough matchup, at +128 is an incredible price. This has been as low as -140 throughout the season.
The same is true with Milwaukee Brewers starter Tobias Myers, but his Under 1.5 walks is an even better price of +150. He has a 2.3 BB/9 on the year and projects for just 14,5 outs, per the Covers' MLB projections. Myers is also doesn't have a high projected pitch count and is 9-3 to the Under this total since the beginning of July.
I'm firing both of these Unders as single plays.
The move: Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks allowed (+128 at bet365) and Tobias Myers Under 1.5 walks allowed (+150 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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