Blue Jays vs Giants Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to lose games in the most painful ways possible. This time, a wild pitch sunk the Jays in their series opener against the San Francisco Giants.

They’ll have to refocus quickly as they’ll face the always-tough Logan Webb. But the Jays should be able to hold their own (at least early on) as they counter with Chris Bassitt, which means my Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions don't foresee a lot of runs.

I break it all down in my MLB picks for Wednesday, July 10.

Blue Jays vs Giants prediction

My best bet
Under 3.5 first-five innings (+100 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

Another Toronto Blue Jays loss, another bullpen implosion. 

The Jays held a 3-1 lead heading into the bottom of the eighth inning after 7 1/3 innings of outstanding work from starter Yusei Kikuchi. Then, as if on cue, the Blue Jays bullpen handed the win to the San Francisco Giants, which concluded with a wild pitch from Trevor Richards.

Now, the Jays will try to even the series against Giants ace Logan Webb. The right-hander is having another solid season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and a 2.72 FIP, which is more than enough to cause problems for Toronto.

Outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and whoever their hotter hitter of the week is (currently George Springer), the Jays have had issues producing runs, particularly vs. right-handed pitchers. Toronto ranks 21st in batting average and 19th in OPS vs. RHP this season.

But like the Blue Jays, the Giants’ bats also struggle to make consistent contact vs. righties, ranking 18th in batting average and 21st in OPS and they’ll have to deal with crafty veteran Chris Bassitt.

Even though Bassitt finally had his first rough outing in almost two months against the Houston Astros last time out, the 35-year-old still has a 2.00 ERA and a 2.88 FIP over his last nine starts, holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer seven times over that stretch.

Now, the total for this matchup hit the board at 7.5 and was quickly bet down to 7.0, but the full-game total makes me uneasy thanks to a Blue Jays bullpen that has the second-worst ERA in baseball. 

So, instead, I’m taking the Under 3.5 in the first five innings. It may be a low number, but these starters should be able to neutralize the bats, and the even money makes it worthwhile.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at PROLINE+)

Let’s keep the spotlight on Bassitt. The veteran with the massive arsenal of pitches doesn’t have the world’s greatest strikeout rate, but his ability to pitch deep into games allows him to rack up the Ks.

Bassitt has one of the longer leashes in baseball, averaging 97.5 pitches and 24.7 batters faced per start. With a strikeout rate of 21.8% over his last eight starts, that works out to 5.4 strikeouts and wouldn’t you know it, his strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5 for this matchup.

But let me tell you why I like the Over here. Bassitt has topped this number in five of his last eight and the Giants are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeout rate at 21.9%. 

On top of that, Bassitt has had some success against the hitters currently in this Giants lineup, limiting them to a .222 expected batting average and a .366 expected slugging while punching them out 25% of the time.

And the price is the kicker. At +110 I’m firing on the Over.

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Blue Jays vs Giants odds

Blue Jays vs Giants live odds

Blue Jays vs Giants opening odds

• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-180) | San Francisco -1.5 (+150)
• Moneyline: Toronto +120 | San Francisco -140
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Blue Jays vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened as +120 road underdogs and have moved to the +140 range as of Wednesday afternoon.
• This move isn't surprising considering Webb is getting the ball for the Giants plus the atrocious state of the Blue Jays' bullpen.
• The total hit the board at 7.5 and was quickly bet down to 7.0.
• Game 1 of this series was the return of the early-season Blue Jays: Strong starting pitching and inconsistent pitching leading to Unders. I'm betting we see more of the same in Game 2.

Blue Jays vs Giants trend

The Under is 7-4-1 in Chris Bassitt's last 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Giants

Blue Jays vs Giants game info

Blue Jays vs Giants latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Giants weather

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