The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox wrap up a three-game series at Fenway Park on Thursday afternoon. These teams have split the first two games in this series and the MLB betting lines have the Jays installed as slim -115 road favorites for the finale.
Here are our best free Blue Jays vs. Red Sox MLB betting picks and predictions for April 21, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Jays as a -125 or -120 favorite and with money coming in on the home side that has shortened to -120 to -115. The Over/Under opened at 9.0 with even odds but is starting to trend downwards and as of 9 a.m. ET the total is either at 8.5 and juiced towards the Over or 9.0 and juiced towards the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 4/21/2022 at 9 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NESN
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman RHP (0-1, 4.22 ERA): Gausman had mixed results in his Blue Jays debut on April 9 but bounced back with a gem against the Yankees in his previous start last week. The righty had nine punchouts and allowed two runs before leaving midway through the sixth inning. Gaus put together the best season of his career last year with San Francisco, going 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while fanning 227 batters across 192 innings.
Tanner Houck RHP (1-0, 3.00): Houck is trying to earn a bigger role in the rotation and is fresh off a strong start against Minnesota where he held the Twins to a pair of hits and didn't allow a run in 5 2-3 innings of work. The 25-year-old got his first taste of extensive playing time in the bigs last season, pitching to a 3.52 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 87 strikeouts through 69 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Blue Jays: George Springer CF (Questionable), Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Red Sox: J.D. Martinez RF (Doubtful), Josh Taylor RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 11-1 in the Blue Jays last 12 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Toronto drove in five runs in the second inning and held on for a 6-1 victory against the Red Sox last night to improve to 7-5 on the season, one game ahead of Boston in what is shaping up to be a battle in the AL East.
Jays' outfielder George Springer was hit by a pitch in the sixth inning and is questionable for today while Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is day-to-day after leaving Wednesday's contest with left adductor tightness.
The Jays' offense has struggled at times this season, getting shut out twice against the Yankees last week and being held to one run in the first game of this series, but at other times have flashed the power that made them one of the most feared lineups in the majors last season.
The Jays are still ninth in the majors with an OPS of .734 and as long as they have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. they'll be a threat at the plate.
The Red Sox have also been underachieving at the dish despite some big-name sluggers and are 16th in the majors in OPS (.662) while their OBP of .285 ranks just 25th.
If it was proven hitters like Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts struggling at the plate I'd say they are bound to break out. However, those studs have actually been performing and it's the lesser bats on the team that can't make contact so I'm less confident that a turnaround is coming soon.
Especially this afternoon against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman who made his first All-Star game in 2021 and looked sharp in his previous outing last week against the Yankees.
The BoSox will respond with young righty Tanner Houck. Houck has promise and a devastating slider but struggled with walks throughout his minor league career. While he lowered his walk rate to an acceptable level last season he seems to have regressed in that area with six walks through nine innings this year.
Houck also hasn't shown the ability to go deep into his starts and often fades on his second and third times through the order (if he even makes it to a third time).
With the Jays hitting a bit better and boasting the more consistent starter we'll back them as short favorites.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-115 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Either of these squads is capable of going off and putting up 10 or more runs on any given day, but with how they've been performing lately we'll lean towards the Under here.
Both teams haven't been consistent offensively and will be missing key pieces in their lineups. Meanwhile, both starters are coming off strong outings and Gausman was one of the best pitchers in the majors last season finishing seventh in ERA+ (145) and FIP (3.00) while tying for the MLB lead in starts (33).
In addition, these bullpens have been very steady to begin this season with Toronto's relievers third in the majors with a collective 0.95 WHIP and Boston's 10th with a 1.11 WHIP.
With the Under going a sizzling 11-1 in the Blue Jays' last 12 games on the road, we'll go in that direction today.
Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
If you're looking for an early wager to cash today, backing these pitchers might be your best call. Gausman was absolutely dominant against the top of the Yankees order last week starting the game with seven straight outs (including three strikeouts).
Houck has a tendency to struggle as he navigates through a lineup the second and third time but the youngster has a terrific track record in the early going.
So far in his career, Houck has a sizzling 1.00 ERA with an OBA of .171 in the first two frames and holds opposing batters to a .185 BA with a minuscule .233 slugging percentage the first time he faces them.
That said, Gausman was surprisingly volatile in the first inning last season where he pitched to 4.09 ERA before picking up steam with a 1.84 ERA over the next three innings, Meanwhile, the Jays have actually been the best team in the majors at scoring in the opening inning, plating a run in 50% of their games.
We'll avoid that first inning and instead bet on the second inning being runless as both starters settle into their usual groove.
Pick: Second inning Under 0.5 runs (-135 at Draftkings)
