Braves vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bad Day to Be a Pitcher

Two divisional leaders will aim for a series win on Sunday when the Atlanta Braves visit the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers are coming off a win after beating the Braves 4-3 on Saturday. Atlanta has the best record in the majors, and holds a commanding 11.5-game lead in the NL East. 

The Braves haven’t lost much this year, and beating them twice in a row has proven incredibly difficult in 2023. Can Milwaukee defy MLB odds and escape with a series win at home? I’ll break it all down in my free MLB picks for the Braves vs. Brewers on July 23.

Braves vs Brewers odds

Braves vs Brewers predictions

While the Milwaukee Brewers are the class of the NL Central at the moment, they aren’t as good as their record suggests. Milwaukee has a -4 run differential on the year despite playing in a relatively weak division, and has had a particularly difficult time scoring runs. The Brewers are scoring 4.16 runs per game, ranking just 24th in the majors in that category.

However, there are some promising signs for the Brew Crew. In July, Milwaukee is hitting .253 with a .734 OPS while averaging 4.76 runs per game. Those numbers are all up significantly over the Brewers’ season-long averages, and may be a sign that a lineup led by the likes of Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras is finally breaking out.

Today’s matchup may seem tough for Milwaukee, as it’ll be facing Atlanta Braves' starter Bryce Elder. Elder has arguably been Atlanta’s best starter over the course of the season, and his 3.31 ERA is still the best among qualified Braves starters. 

But Elder hasn’t lived up to that standard in recent outings. Over his last two starts, Elder has lasted a total of just six innings while allowing 14 runs — 12 of which were earned. He’s given up three homers and five walks over that time, while striking out just four batters.

Those numbers aren’t just bad, but concerning. One bad start may be an aberration, but two disastrous ones in a row begin to raise some eyebrows. While Elder made his first All-Star Game this year, it’s fair to ask if the second-year starter is dealing with some growing pains right now.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are starting their own struggling hurler in the form of 32-year-old Julio Teheran. Like Elder, Teheran has been terrible over his last few starts, allowing 17 earned runs over 16.1 innings in his last three outings. That’s hardly a recipe for success against the Braves, who average 5.63 runs per game — third best in the majors.

This game is lined up for a slugfest, with both starting pitchers looking vulnerable and both lineups ready to pounce. I’m taking the Over at a reasonable 9.5 runs in a game that should get well above that total.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-114 at Unibet)

Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay

Over 10 runs

Brewers ML

Elder Under 4.5 Ks

+485 at FanDuel

I’m looking for a big payout from my same-game parlay today by following the same logic as in my best bet above. With both teams likely to take advantage of struggling starters on the mound, I’m comfortable taking the Over even at the 10-run total offered at FanDuel today.

Along with that, I want to take the Brewers at home on the moneyline. While the Braves are clearly the better team, Elder’s recent troubles make it very tempting to back Milwaukee when we’re getting a plus number as an underdog.

Finally, I’m betting on Elder to hit the Under on his strikeouts prop. Elder isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, averaging just seven Ks per nine innings. He’s also finished with four strikeouts or less in each of his last four starts. That’s enough to round out our SGP with the Under here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Atlanta opened today’s game as around a -160 favorite. As of noon of Sunday, that’s still the approximate consensus line, though you can find -155 at some books. Meanwhile, the Brewers are available at +135 at most sites, with some offering slightly longer odds at +140.

Milwaukee has been one of the best teams for bettors this year, winning about 10 units on the moneyline. The Braves have also been excellent, rewarding backers with nearly eight units of profits in 2023.

I like the Brewers this afternoon, at least with the generous plus money we’re getting at sportsbooks right now. Neither team is throwing a reliable pitcher, but Elder in particularly looks like he may be going through something on the mound, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to fix it today. With that much uncertainty and Milwaukee coming in as a significant underdog, I’m leaning towards the Brew Crew.

The Over/Under on today’s game opened at 9.5 runs, and you can still find that number at a few sites. However, most books have since moved up to a flat 10 runs, likely as bettors react to the pitching matchup.

Atlanta has generally played to the Over this season, which has gone 52-42-3 in Braves' games. Milwaukee’s struggling offense has seen the Under go 53-42-4 over the course of its season.

As I outlined above, I like the Over this afternoon. Both pitchers have been giving up runs early and in bunches in their recent starts. Atlanta always scores, and the Brewers seem to be joining the party in July. This is set up to be a high-scoring game, and while I prefer the 9.5 total, I’d lean hard towards the Over even at 10 runs.

Trend to know

The Over is 49-39 in Atlanta’s last 88 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers

Braves vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Bryce Elder (7-2, 3.31 ERA): The Braves were pleased with Elder in his rookie season last year, and for the most part, 2023 has been a year of growth for the 24-year-old. However, Elder has gone off the tracks in his last two starts, going a total of just six innings while giving up 14 runs on 13 hits and four walks in those outings. Last time out, Elder game up seven runs (five earned) over 2 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 18.

Julio Teheran (2-4, 4.01 ERA): A former two-time All-Star for Atlanta, Teheran has been bouncing around over the last few years. He seems to have found a role as a depth starter for the Brewers, making nine starts so far this year and posting a solid 4.01 ERA. That’s despite his own recent struggles, as he has allowed 17 earned runs over 16.1 innings in his last three starts. Teheran gave up four runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings in his last outing against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 18. 

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic