The San Francisco Giants and Carlos Rodon will try and slow down the Atlanta Braves this afternoon at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park but the home side might be getting a little long on the moneyline despite the advantage in starting pitching.
The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball but they strike out a lot and Rodon is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. Find out where my best bet lies in today’s free MLB picks and predictions for Braves and Giants.
Braves vs Giants best odds
Braves vs Giants picks and predictions
Carlos Rodon will have a tough matchup today vs. the Braves but that's something that’s certainly priced into his pitching prop markets. What might not be priced in are the incredible pitching conditions at Oracle Park, where it will be a chilly 59 degrees with a high 93% humidity. Both of those conditions will benefit Rodon as humidity helps ball rotation and low temperatures with high humidity suppress ball flight.
Rodon is averaging just 5.8 innings pitched per start at home but has a much higher K/9 at Oracle, which sits at 12.7 K/9 compared to his 10.9 K/9 on the road. No qualified pitcher has a higher K-rate than Rodon’s 32.5%.
But should bettors be scared to hit Rodon’s Over 7.5 strikeouts with a tough matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves? In short, no. The Braves are actually a very high K% team. Their 24.4% K% is the third highest in baseball and over the last 30 days, it sits at 23.3%. An afternoon game means the Braves will likely put in a weaker lineup, which could mean some higher strikeout guys in Marcell Ozuna (23.6 K%), Guillermo Heredia (40.3%), and William Contreras (27%).
The Giants' lefty doesn't even need to use his secondary pitches to generate Ks as he has a 28% Whiff% on his fastball.
Most whiffs on 4-seam fastballs, 2022
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) September 7, 2022
1) Carlos Rodón: 230
2) Spencer Strider: 192
3) Cristian Javier: 190
4) Gerrit Cole: 187
??5) Logan Gilbert: 176 (+10 tonight)
Rodon has seen the Braves once this year and went seven innings at Truist Park, whiffing 10. He’s hit double-digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has recorded at least seven punchouts in 14 of his last 17 so even when he's hitting Unders, he has been right there.
With the Giants using two middle relievers for heavy usage yesterday, there could be a longer leash today for Rodon.
My best bet: Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 strikeouts (Odds +107 at Unibet)
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Braves vs Giants betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Braves opened at -125 and moved shorter to -135 by this morning. Atlanta closed as -154 favorites last night in a game where they had a legit starting pitching advantage in Kyle Wright vs. Jakob Junis.
Carlos Rodon closed as a -140 road favorite vs. Charlie Morton back in late June, a game the Giants bullpen blew after Rodon went seven frames and struck out 10 batters. Atlanta has won four of the six meetings this season but five of those matchups were decided by one run.
Offensively, Atlanta has a massive edge as this is a team that is deeper than any other lineup in baseball. Even if they roll out a typical afternoon lineup, this is a stacked offense that is also getting help from rookies Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom, who are both hitting over .300 and have an OPS north of .840.
However, the price seems to be too short on the Braves' side if we compare the last meeting between Morton and Rodon and how last night’s game was priced as well. Morton and Wright aren’t much different but going from Junis to Rodon is worth more than 20 points in my opinion.
Rodon is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball and gets a great environment at Oracle Park to pitch in today. His high strikeout rates leave innings for the bullpen to eat but with the loss yesterday, the back end of the San Fransisco bullpen is ready to roll.
With the starting pitching advantage and having played Atlanta tightly this season, Rodon and the Giants at home for plus money is appetizing. Rodon closed at +105 in a road start vs. the Dodgers in his last start as an underdog.
Over/Under analysis
The Braves are the best Over team in baseball with a 72-62-8 mark but that’s just a 53.7% rate and only three teams in baseball are hitting Overs at above 52.2%.
Bettors who have been hitting the Overs on Charlie Morton starts are currently counting their money. The Atlanta right-hander is 21-6 to the Over across his 27 starts this season. His 4.04 ERA is a contributor to that, but being supported by an offense that sits second in wOBA also helps. Atlanta sits third in batting average and seventh in home runs vs. left-handed pitching.
This total opened at 7.5 and has seen some action on the Under as many books are as short as -125 on the Under 7.5 at the time of writing. It could hit 7 — but I’d expect that to get hit hard on the Over if it does drop that low.
This total will close at 7.5 with juice on the Under. Last night’s total closed at 8 and featured just six runs and 14 hits with only one long ball. Opposing teams are hitting just 0.69 home runs per game at Oracle Park this season, which is the lowest mark in baseball.
Oracle Park is the No. 1 home run-suppressing park in baseball and today’s low temperature and high humidity forecast aren’t helping.
Braves vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
• Date: Wednesday, September 14, 2022
• First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Bay Area, Bally Sports Network
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (8-5, 4.08 ERA): Morton keeps rolling in his age-38 season. He owns a 3.03 ERA over his last 15 starts and has been punching out well over a batter an inning all season long. Morton gets barrelled hard when batters do hit him but he also sits in the Top 25% in whiff rate. Atlanta is 15-12 straight up when Morton starts this season.
Carlos Rodon (12-8, 2.93 ERA): Rodon leads all of baseball in K% at 32.5% and comes into today’s matinee with a 2.72 ERA over his last seven starts with 54 punchouts over 39-plus innings. He pitched well vs. Morton and the Braves back in June, going seven innings and striking out 10 in a no-decision. His splits are fairly even but he does strike out more batters at home.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Francisco. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants
