Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Conditions, Pitching Keeps Series Finale Under

The final game of this four-game set gets going today when the New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves. 

The Mets swept yesterday's doubleheader, including a shutout in the nightcap, and are now 18-8, the best mark in the National League.

On the flip side, Atlanta is now four games under .500 at 11-15 and will be desperate to even things up today against a division rival early in the season.

Who will take the final game of the series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets Wednesday, May 3.

Braves vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning. The Mets opened up as -125 favorites, with the Braves coming back at +105. Since then, New York has taken more money and is down to -135 in some spots. The Mets have opened up as favorites in every game of this series. 

The total opened up at a flat 7 and hasn't shown any movement. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (-130)
• Prediction: Under 7 (-120)
• Best bet: Megill Over 4.5 Ks + first inning Under 0.5 (+120)

Picks made on 5/4/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Braves vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southeast, SportsNet New York

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ian Anderson (2-1, 4.66 ERA): Ian Anderson is a curious pitcher. Despite finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting last season, there were alarming numbers. His FIP was relatively high and didn't reflect the ERA he had. His strikeout rate was low and was particularly unusual because he relied so much on strikeouts in the minor leagues. Anderson came into this season as a pitcher relatively primed for regression, and though he's had an uneven start, it looks like that is occurring. His most significant issue is that he's walking entirely too many batters, with a walk percentage that ranks in the Bottom 20% of MLB. Through 19 innings, he's given up 10 earned runs. He's probably been a bit unlucky, though. His expected ERA is over an entire run lower than what his actual ERA is. 

Tylor Megill (4-0, 1.93 ERA): Megill had a sensational rookie season until about midway through, when he hit a wall and became a victim of the home run. Over the final three months of the season, Megill was averaging just over two home runs per 9 innings. However, this season he's added a cutter to his arsenal and gotten off to a terrific start. He's only struggled once this season in a start against the Giants when he surrendered four runs through six innings. Take that away, and the young righty has given up just two earned runs over 14 innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Mets: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets

Braves vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

I'm going to side with the Mets here, but it's not a confident view. At some point, the Braves are going to break out. There's simply far too much talent on the roster and far too many bats that have been quiet, but this doesn't seem like the best spot for that to happen.

The New York Mets are for real and have been on an absolute tear to start this season and I'm not going to step in front of that just yet. My projections have the Mets favored by the number in line with the current price, so while I don't see an edge, I think New York takes this one.

The issue for Ian Anderson in this matchup is explicitly his walk rate. As I've already spoken about, it's been a problem throughout his career, and there's little reason to expect that to change. This number has steadily risen throughout Anderson's career, so it's not one of those you'd expect to correct itself.

In his blowup opening day start against the hapless Reds, Anderson walked five batters throughout 2 2-3 innings. He's been better since then, but it's a game against teams with a high swing rate at the plate. I'm not sure I can completely erase that game from my mind for a pitcher that I was already anticipating regression. 

The Mets, on the other hand, are very patient at the plate. They ranked ninth in walk rate, third in overall walks, and second in whiff rate. Simply put, they don't strike out a lot because they remain disciplined at the plate.

With Anderson, I'm taking a believe it when I see it approach. The warning signs have been there, and we're starting to see the symptoms. As a result, the Mets should be able to get to him eventually.

Give me New York here. While I don't see much value in the play as a whole, I think their patience at the plate and momentum get them the win here.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-130 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

I am much more confident in jumping on the Under here. First, the conditions at Citi Field will be pretty dreadful for home runs or runs in general. Winds are blowing in, the temperature is cold, and we may even have some rain in the forecast. Secondly, I think this will result in more soft contact, which both pitchers are pretty good at producing. 

While Ian Anderson's major issue has been balls, he has had some concerns with his barrel rate and hard-hit balls. However, that won't be an issue today. Beyond the conditions in the stadium, the actual players aren't equipped to attack that. New York has the fourth-worst barrel rate in baseball, second-worst hard-hit rate in baseball, and the second-worst exit velocity. Hard hits aren't their thing, and that will be even more evident today, given the weather.

On the flip side, while the Braves have the pop in their bat to make Megill suffer from the long-ball, it's going to be ugly in Citi Field today. When you can't get to him that way, Megill becomes virtually unhittable.

His strikeout rate has been excellent to start the year, and when teams do hit him, he does an excellent job of reducing hard contact. As a result, the Braves have the worst whiff rate in baseball and chase many pitches. That sets up Megill nicely.

I'm taking the Under confidently here. My projections see about six runs, but I'm not sure even if they fully account for today's conditions. 

Prediction: Under 7 (-120 at FanDuel)

Best bet

I'm expecting both of these pitchers to get out to a strong start today, and because of that, I'm grabbing the No Run Scored in First prop available at FanDuel. The Braves haven't scored a run in the first inning in over three games and rank 23rd in MLB in first-inning runs. 

The Mets have been racking up first-inning runs as of late, but it's not something they are typically accustomed to. The juice of -132 is a little too heavy for me to play alone, so I'm going to pair it with something.

Enter the alternate strikeout total of Over 4.5 for Tylor Megill. Megill has gone over this number in four out of five games. The one time he didn't came against the San Francisco Giants, a team that ranks sixth in MLB in chase rate. As we've already discussed, that is the antithesis of who the Braves have been at the plate this season. Atlanta is whiffing an average of nine times per game this season. That's the sixth-worst mark in baseball. I think this cashes pretty comfortably. 

Give me a same-game parlay of Megill Over 4.5 strikeouts + no runs scored in the first inning. It's a creative way to approach things, but I believe it's one of the best bets on the board, especially at plus money. 

Pick: Tylor Megill Over 4.5 strikeouts + first inning Under 0.5 (+120 at FanDuel)

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