The Atlanta Braves will look to get their first win of the early season on Saturday when they square off with the San Diego Padres from Petco Park.
After blowing a lead in the series opener, the Braves again struggled to find a run in the closing innings and fell 4-3 on Friday. Now they turn to Spencer Schwellenbach to pick up a win against Randy Vasquez and an exhausted San Diego bullpen.
My Braves vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, March 29 explain why it’s likely to be a rough outing for the home starter.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My Braves vs Padres best bet: Braves first-five team total Over 2.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
The San Diego Padres have taken the first two games of this series, but it’s come at a cost. The San Diego bullpen arms have been taxed, especially after Opening Day starter Michael King failed to get out of the third inning.
Matters weren’t helped on Friday. Dylan Cease needed 93 pitches to record 13 outs, and the Padres had to turn to four different relievers to throw one-hit ball over the last 4 2/3 innings to get the 4-3 win.
That’s why manager Mike Shildt has said he will need Randy Vasquez to eat some innings on Saturday. That means if he gets into trouble, there won’t be anybody to save him — and trouble has tended to present itself when he’s pitched against the Atlanta Braves.
Vasquez pitched against Atlanta twice last season, losing 3-0 in May on the road and suffering a 6-3 defeat at home in July. In both instances, he got hit fairly hard.
The first meeting saw him surrender 10 hits and three earned over six innings, managing just two strikeouts. While he gave up just two runs on four hits in the second outing, he also managed to get through the five innings while throwing just 73 pitches.
With Atlanta knowing the bullpen situation, they will likely take a few more pitches on Saturday. They’re also hoping to continue a trend of scoring early, having scored 3+ runs in the first five innings in both games so far.
And current Atlanta hitters have had success against Vasquez. As a team, they’re hitting .282 and slugging .462 against the righty in 39 at-bats. And the trio of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna have a combined eight hits in just 18 at-bats.
Vasquez ranked in the Bottom 1% last season in both xBA and strikeout rate, the Bottom 2% in xERA, and was in the fifth percentile in whiff rate. He also had a terrible Spring Training, with opponents hitting .378 in eight innings as he posted a 1.88 WHIP. He likely wouldn’t be in the rotation if not for Yu Darvish's injury.
Either way, Atlanta should find some early success. The BATX projects strong RBI odds for Ozuna, Olson, and Austin Riley, not to mention the likelihood of Jarred Kelenic having a solid day.
Given those factors and his overall lack of quality stuff, I’ll gladly back the Braves to put up 3+ runs over the first five innings against Vasquez as he’s left to fend for himself.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves first-five team total Over 2.5
Run scored in first inning: Yes
Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases
Seven of the last nine meetings between the Braves and Padres — including both games to open this season — have featured a first-inning run. I’m not usually one for betting trends, but these two teams just seem to get off to fast starts against each other, and Vasquez is likely to cough up an early run.
Ozuna has three hits and a walk in seven career appearances against Vasquez, and all three hits have gone for extra bases. While he’s got just one hit over the first two games, he’s also walked twice, and the three balls he’s put into play have averaged 92.9 exit velocity. I expect him to square up on a pitcher who struggles to avoid barrels.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -140 | San Diego +120
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | San Diego +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Padres trend
The Braves have covered the first-five run line in 23 of their last 32 road games for +12.3 units and a 29% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 3-29-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (2024: 8-7, 3.35 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (2024: 4-7, 4.87 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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