The second edition of Sunday Night Baseball is here for the 2022 season as the Atlanta Braves wrap up a four-game series in San Diego against Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres.
While we won't get to see the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. suit up thanks to their unfortunate injuries, there are still a number of exciting players to watch — and, as a result, there are a number of player prop picks worth our keen betting eyes.
Here are our three best free player prop picks for Sunday Night Baseball between the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres on April 17. Be sure to check out our full game betting analysis for this matchup as well!
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MLB props for Braves vs Padres
Picks made on 4/17/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Braves vs Padres prop bets
Yu don't say?
One of the prevailing storylines in the early days of the season has been how much teams are playing it safe with their starting pitchers. In all of the MLB, only ONE starter has completed seven innings in each of his first two outings (Logan Webb). With abbreviated spring training and expanded rosters, there's been no incentive to push the issue.
As a result, starters aren't exactly piling up the strikeouts even if their rates would be strong when extrapolated across a full nine innings of work. So, an understandably popular pick has been the Under on total strikeouts.
Now, Braves rookie Bryce Elder has his Ks total at 4.5 with -145 to the Under, which I don't love. Padres right-hander Yu Darvish, on the other hand, can be had at +120 to record Under 5.5 punchouts. In past seasons, this would be a hard number to swallow as he's posted high strikeout rates throughout his career, but there's reason to be concerned, at least for now.
First, he's coming off an absolutely disastrous outing — the shortest and worst of his entire MLB career — where he allowed nine earned runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in just 1 2-3 innings against the Giants and finished with just two Ks.
Darvish was much better — though not exactly efficient — in his Opening Day start. He didn't allow a hit to the Arizona Diamondbacks but did issue four walks over his six innings of work. And despite his positive end result, Darvish also only fanned three Arizona batters in the process.
The Braves are patient on the whole and could work counts against Darvish, who has always struggled a bit with walks. Atlanta is fourth in the league in walk rate (11%) and 10th in pitches per plate appearance (3.98).
At plus money with teams still easing their starters into the season and Darvish looking shaky through two starts — and facing his toughest opponents to date — I'm comfortably taking the Under on his strikeouts total.
Pick: Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120)
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Machado about something
I don't know if Manny Machado can do anything quietly, but he's been one of baseball's best hitters through 10 games in 2022. He's batting .350/.409/.525 and while he only has the one home run, Machado has ripped four doubles and has two multi-hit games in his last three.
Machado must be chomping at the bit to face Braves rookie Bryce Elder. The 22-year-old is making his second career start and surrendered six hits, including a pair of home runs, in his previous outing against the Washington Nationals. Elder's sinker-slider-cutter combo didn't typically yield a lot of home runs in the minors — he allowed just one in 36 2-3 innings in Triple-A a year ago — but he also doesn't overpower hitters with velocity.
That's a recipe for disaster against a hitter like Machado, who historically makes a ton of contact. Don't focus too much on his 25% strikeout rate over 44 plate appearances this year as his career rate is an excellent 16.7%.
He's been alternating between second and third in the batting order and will have ample opportunities to rack up a two-hit night. Machado still has plenty of pop in his bat as evidenced by his 28 home runs and 31 doubles a year ago, so this prop could realistically be in the bag after one swing.
Pick: Manny Machado total bases Over 1.5 (+100)
D'Arnaud drives 'em in
Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud got a breather on Saturday when he sat out Game 3 of this series. He should be inserted back into the middle of the lineup tonight and carries great value to record an RBI.
The 33-year-old veteran has primarily been installed as Atlanta's No. 5 hitter behind the likes of Matt Olson (.556 OBP), Austin Riley (.400), Ozzie Albies (.333), and Marcell Ozuna (.333).
While each of those batters ahead of him have home run power (they've all gone deep multiple times this season), they also set the table for d'Arnaud to do damage.
With Darvish struggling to both miss bats and hit the strike zone, the Braves can work counts and get on base early and often, which will put d'Arnaud in an excellent position to drive runners in.
He's getting better odds than his peers to record an RBI at +220 — possibly due to how often he rests — but after getting the day off, there's no reason to expect him to ride pine again, especially as he's batting .280 over 26 plate appearances to open the season.
Pick: Travis d'Arnaud to record an RBI (+220)
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