The Atlanta Braves head to Citizens Bank Park for a four-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night. Just one game separates these rivals in the NL East standings as they chase the New York Mets for the division lead.
MLB betting lines have the Braves installed as -141 favorites for this contest with the Over/Under opening at 9.
Here are our best free Braves vs. Phillies picks and predictions for Thursday, July 22, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Braves vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Thursday, July 22, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southwest, NBCSP
Braves vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline bounced around a bit at TwinSpires Sportsbook, where the Braves opened -130, moved to -140 and back to -130, then went to -136. As of 4:15 p.m. ET, the Phillies are drawing 62 percent of bets and 58 percent of cash. The total moved from 9 to 9.5, albeit not on overwhelming action, with 55 percent of bets/59 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBraves vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.69 ERA): The Braves rotation has been decimated by injuries but Morton has been one of Atlanta's most reliable arms. The veteran has pitched to a 1.12 WHIP while holding opponents to a batting average of .214 across 19 starts this season. In his last outing, Morton allowed six hits and three runs in six innings against Tampa Bay.
Matt Moore (0-1, 5.25 ERA): Moore began the year as a starter in Philly but was demoted to the bullpen after some ugly performances in April. After pitching out of the bullpen for a month and a stint on the IL, Moore is back in Philadelphia's rotation and has looked a bit better. He's coming off a performance against the Marlins where he allowed six hits and two runs while fanning nine batters in 4 1-3 innings of work.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Phillies: Odubel Herrera CF (Out), Alec Bohm 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-3-1 in Braves last 14 games as a road favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
The Philadelphia Phillies are in second place in the NL East with a 47-47 record, 3.5 games behind the first-place Mets — and just one game ahead of the Braves.
Despite strong seasons from Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and Andrew McCutchen, the Phillies are 14th in the majors with an OPS of .717. They also won't find it easy to get going against Morton, who has been Atlanta's best pitcher this season.
Morton has been especially sharp on the road, where he has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .175 through 41 1-3 innings.
The Braves haven't been hitting particularly well lately but they should still have some success against Phillies left-hander Matt Moore. Moore has pitched to a 5.65 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP and an OBA of .293 in 28 2-3 innings as a starter this season.
Atlanta hasn't looked great in recent weeks but they are 11-5 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record and are also 8-4 in Morton's last 12 starts. Grab them on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Atlanta (-145)
Over/Under pick
The Phillies have been crushing Overs lately, going 11-2 O/U in their last 13 games but they could be stifled by Morton tonight.
The Braves starter has had mixed success in three starts against Philly this year but he's a proven commodity and has pitched to a 3.00 ERA in his last eight starts. More importantly for bettors, the Under has gone 7-3-1 in Morton's last 11 outings.
The Braves have struggled to hit on the road, plating just 4.05 runs per game. They have also been dealt a brutal blow with a season-ending injury to MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. just before the All-Star break.
While Moore has an awful track record as a starter, he has looked a bit sharper lately, pitching to a 3.06 ERA since returning to the Phillies rotation at the end of June.
With the Under going 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia between these division rivals, back it again tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (+100)
Braves vs Phillies betting card
- Atlanta ML (-145)
- Under 8.5 (+100)
Picks made on 7/22/2021 at 9:35 a.m. ET
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