Another pivotal NL East series gets going tonight when the Atlanta Braves travel to face the Philadelphia Phillies.
This will be a three-game series played in a division that Atlanta has fully grasped, and many would argue the Braves are the best team in baseball right now having won five straight.
Things for the Phillies have taken a step back from their World Series appearance a season ago. They sit third in the division but come into this one off a sweep following a sweep of Oakland.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves on Tuesday, June 20.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies predictions
Being the lead-off man for baseball's best offense has its perks, and nobody knows that better than Ronald Acuna.
He's now scored a run in six consecutive games and eight of his last 10. It helps when you're having an MVP-caliber season, but it also helps when you have great hitters around you; Acuna has both working in his favor. I'm grabbing Acuna to score a run tonight as my best bet at -135 over at bet365.
Ranger Suarez will take the mound tonight, and he's an interesting pitcher to analyze. None of the metrics are particularly impressive, and what really sticks out is the expected batting average that ranks in the Bottom 20% of baseball.
That said, he's now made three consecutive starts of over five innings, allowing one run or fewer. Suarez can get by because he can produce ground balls at an elite clip... like an insane clip over 50%. That's very helpful when facing most teams in baseball, but today, it could get him in trouble, especially against the upper portion of this lineup.
Why the upper portion? That's because Suarez is likely to face four consecutive batters with a hard-hit rate in the Top 20% of baseball. He's going to do that at least two times and potentially three. He's also going to see four consecutive batters that have high flyball rates, which is, you know, a good antidote against a ground-ball-reliant pitcher.
To cash this play, we have to ask ourselves two questions. Can Ronald Acuna get on base? That answer seems straightforward. Take away his hitting ability entirely from the discussion, and you still like his chances. Suarez has an above-average walk rate, and Acuna has the second-lowest chase rate of any Brave.
The second question you must ask is, can the Acuna be driven in? The answer to that is a resounding yes. His elite speed helps him immensely, and the players around them should be able to successively target Suarez's weaknesses on the mound.
Bet for Acuna to continue to do what he's done all season, and that's finding home plate. I projected this number at -155 and see great value at the current price.
My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. to score a run (-135)
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay
Braves team total Over 3.5 (-215)
Braves to score last run (-120)
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-135)
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 hits (-140)
Ronald Acuna to score a run leads off our same-game parlay and is self-explanatory. As I said above, being the lead-off man for the best offense in baseball has its perks.
That explains our Braves team's total portion as well. We're just asking the Braves to do what the Braves do. Atlanta has gone Over this mark in seven straight games. I'm not expecting a pitcher like Suarez — with a below-average hard-hit rate and an expected era of over 4.00 — to stand in the way of that.
As for the other legs, while some of its starting pitching has been frustrating over the last few weeks, Atlanta's bullpen has been the best in baseball lately. In the previous 30 days, it has the best bullpen ERA in the NL and fourth best in baseball overall. I'll take a chance here with the bullpen that has been rolling at a great multiplier because the Phillies will have the last opportunity to hit.
I'm rounding things off with Nick Castellanos to grab a hit. He has the longest hitting streak of any player in tonight's game (six) and has far and away the highest batting average of the Phillies (.431) against four-seam fastballs. That's a pitch he'll see a ton of — at least early — with Strider on the mound.
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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The story about this matchup from a moneyline perspective is how varying the markets are. That reflects Spencer Strider and the public's willingness to fade him.
As of publication, I saw the Braves as low as -145 in the market to as high as -165. That willingness to fade Strider is fair. He's been overpriced and gave up 13 combined earned runs to the Tigers and Mets, but this is not the matchup to do it.
Strider has had some solid historic dominance against the Phillies and has performed well against teams with similar metrics. This is an excellent buy-low spot at a price generally in a non-playable range. It's hard to pass up on a team with an OPS of over .900 in the previous month and a batting average of .300 with Strider on the mound.
As for the total tonight, I'll place a unit on the Over. I projected this number at 9, so I'll grab 8.5 at +100 over at DraftKings. A few things play into this (I mentioned some of the trends earlier). Winds will be blowing out tonight, which is a good thing for home runs but a bad thing for two pitchers below league average in hard-hit rate.
On one side, we have an extremely ground-ball-reliant pitcher in Suarez that will face the best offense in baseball and doesn't hit ground balls a ton. Strider is on the other side and while I have to back him to bounce back, it's hard to envision him being spotless. A few runs from the Phillies may be all we need.
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Trend to know
Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored a run in six straight games.. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider (7-2, 4.12 ERA): I've written the same thing about Strider for the last year, and it's starting to ring true. He can be an absolutely dominant strikeout pitcher: We all know that and I'm sure many of us have won bets on his strikeout props. However, some struggles happen when teams are patient at the plate. The walks creep up, he becomes less efficient with his pitches, and the hard-hit issues show. We've seen that in a significant — likely oversized — way over the last month when he posted an ERA of 9.00, a number that would send shockwaves down most Braves fans' minds. These struggles are likely to continue against patient teams if the issues aren't addressed.
Ranger Suarez (1-2, 3.82 ERA): Not a ton of what Suarez does is impressive; the one thing that is, though? A ground ball rate that exceeds 50%. It's one of the best in baseball, and it's why he's been able to be a solid starter for Philly this season. Over the past month, he's posted an eye-popping ERA of .90 in three starts against the Nationals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. He went seven scoreless last time out against the D-backs, his best performance of the season.
