Brewers vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Woodruff, Brew Bullpen Prove the Difference

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to pad their lead in the NL Central as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium tonight as -145 road favorites. 

The Brewers have a 4.5-game lead in the division after last night’s 4-3 win which was their third in a row. Now they’ll send out Brandon Woodruff to the bump who has won five of his last six starts.

Can the Cards’ bats get to this Milwaukee bullpen or are the Brewers too comfortable playing in one-run games? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cardinals. 

Brewers vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The -145 price on the Brewers has stayed pretty consistent since opening on Friday morning. The Brewers closed as +100 road dogs in the series opener last night. This is surprisingly the longest Brandon Woodruff has been on the road and he closed as a -140 home favorite in the last meeting.

Tonight’s total sits at 7.5 and leans to the Under. Last night’s total also closed at 7.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Cardinals predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (-145)
• Prediction: Under 7.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Most hits Brewers (-140)

Picks made on 5/27/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Friday, May 27, 2022
• First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest

Brewers vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Brandon Woodruff (5-2, 4.76 ERA): Despite the disappointing ERA, Brandon Woodruff is starting to heat up. He’s won five of his last six starts and the Brewers are 6-1 SU in his last seven turns. He’s given up just two runs over his last two starts (11 innings) and has had at least six strikeouts in six straight starts.

His velocity is down slightly but batters are struggling to hit Woodruff’s 4-seamer as opponents are hitting just .161 vs. the starter’s No. 1 pitch. The righty went five scoreless against the Cards in April in a 5-1 Milwaukee victory. 

Dakota Hudson RHP (3-2, 3.60 ERA): Dakota Hudson will make his second start against the Brewers this season as he lasted just three innings in the first matchup where he gave up four runs. He also doesn’t come into tonight’s meeting in great form as he's surrendered 10 runs over his last 20-plus innings. 

Looking at his MLB Savant page, there isn’t a lot of red. He sits in the bottom-10% in the league in Whiff%, K%, chase rate and hard hit% which would put him at the bottom of the barrel of the league’s starting pitchers. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Willy Adames SS (Out), Hunter Renfroe RP (Out).
Cardinals: Jordan Hicks RP (Out), Tyler O’Neil OF (Out). 
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Brewers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals

Brewers vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to stack wins thanks to pitching and defense, as Craig Counsell’s team sits on top of the NL Central with a 29-16 record — 4.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. Tonight’s visitors have the second-best team pitching WAR, the fourth-best team ERA, and a bullpen that's 11-4 with 21 saves (in 29 wins) which equates to the second-best bullpen WAR in baseball. 

The pitching has been aided by one of the league’s best defensive teams, which is no surprise if you followed this club a season ago. So far in 2022, the Brewers lead the league in defensive runs saved, and although the Cards are elite defensively, the Brewers are slightly better. 

Last season, the Milwaukee bats were the biggest issues. Christian Yelich was awful in 2021, but he has found his way in 2022 and is supported by a much stronger lineup thanks to notables like Rowdy Tellez, Andrew McCutchen, and Luis Urias. This is a lineup that now has some pop and leads the NL in home runs hit, sitting in the Top 10 in baseball in SLG and wOBA. There's a big reason this team has moved from +1,600 to +900 in the outright market.

Now, this revamped and hot offense will get to tee off on one of the worst MLB starters, per MLB Savant. Dakota Hudson has been a loyal Cardinal for five seasons now, but this right-hander doesn’t miss bats, gets hit hard, and sits in the lower third in baseball in velocity. He doesn’t give up many long balls (just four through 40 innings) but his 22/18 strikeout-to-walk ratio is not intimidating, and for a guy who relies on contact, Hudson sits in the Bottom 25% in the league in hard-hit percentage and exit velocity. The Brewers tagged him for four runs over three innings in an earlier April meeting.

Hudson will face off against Brandon Woodruff, who is starting to heat up after a rough start to the season. This is a dominant right-hander who finished last season with over 200 Ks in 179 innings to go along with a 2.79 ERA. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts and has 12 punchouts to just two walks over those 11 innings. Woodruff has seen the Cardinals 11 times over his career and owns a fantastic 1.006 WHIP. The Brewers are also 6-1 SU in his last seven starts.

If Woodruff exits with a lead, it’s an almost-lock for a win as the Milwaukee bullpen could be the best in baseball. Josh Hader was back in the closing role last night after dealing with some family issues and was his elite self. He's converted 30 straight saves and has 37 straight scoreless frames dating back to July of last season. 

Josh Hader this season:

16 games
16 saves
14.2 IP / no runs
Opponents 3-for-48 with 6 walks and 22 strikeouts.#ThisIsMyCrew

— Mike Vassallo (@MikeVassallo13) May 27, 2022

If this is also a low-scoring game, it favors the visitors, as the Brewers are also the best one-run team in baseball with an 11-4 SU mark in one-run games. Milwaukee has the arms, the gloves, and now the bats. This is a scary team to face and there is a reason Woodruff and the Crew are -145 road favorites. 

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-145 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The Brewers are 18-22-5 O/U on the season — it’s not surprising that a team with one of the best rotations and bullpens in baseball plus the No. 1 defense is playing low-scoring games. Only the Dodgers and Padres are allowing fewer runs per game in the NL than Milwaukee at 3.76.

Last night’s game was a perfect example of how the Brewers can just shut things down. In yesterday’s opener, four total runs were scored in the first frame and the game still stayed Under 7.5 with the 4-3 final. 

Hudson might be a scary pitcher to trust with an Under, but he doesn’t allow many home runs and also has one of the best defenses behind him. However, he is still a liability on this total, at 5-3 to the Over in his eight starts. He's an all-or-nothing pitcher, with five of his eight starts yielding three or more runs while he’s also had three scoreless outings. Hudson is the biggest factor in this total and if he has his stuff going, the Under should be a great ticket to be holding. But be warned, Hudson has a career 5.16 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP over seven games.

This is not an easy total to come to a conclusion on and that usually means a pivot to a derivative market might be best. Getting runs versus this Milwaukee bullpen is next to impossible and if the Crew go into the eighth and ninth inning with the lead, asking for scoring is wishful thinking. The St. Louis bullpen is an average unit but also locked it down last night with four scoreless innings. 

This is more of a lean than a play for us, but we’re favoring the Under here. Milwaukee is a home-run hitting offense that plays into Hudson’s strength at keeping the ball in the park. Woodruff is getting back to his sub-3.00 ERA ways and has already had success against this St. Louis lineup this season. Finally, we are not betting against a Milwaukee bullpen or defense that might be the best in baseball. We’re starting to see this total leak to 7 and if it does hit that number, we’d likely be off this total entirely. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-120 at bet365)

Best bet

The Brewers’ lineup managed 10 hits versus Adam Wainwright yesterday in only five innings of work. They cooled down after the St. Louis bullpen arrived but still managed 12 total hits while holding the Cards to just three hits in the final four innings — all thrown by the Milwaukee bullpen. Instead of taking the Brewers on the ML at -145, we’re looking at the most hits market.

The Brewers have the luxury of having high-quality at-bats for nine innings against a weak starter in Hudson and a league-average bullpen, whereas the Cards have to face an upper-tier starter in Woodruff and then take on one of the best bullpens in baseball that's fresh after using just two relievers yesterday and Hader available tonight.

St. Louis does average more hits per game at 8.68 to Milwaukee’s 7.80 on the season, but Hudson pitches to a ton of contact while Woodruff does not. If the Brewers can keep the hits total close after the starters leave, the Brewers have such an advantage in the later innings (and a possible extra three outs as the visitor) that they should win the hit total in the later innings as well.

Pick: Most hits (3-way) Brewers (-140 at bet365)

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