The Milwaukee Brewers padded their lead in the NL Central with a pair of wins over the Chicago Cubs yesterday and will look to take the third of a four-game series tonight as -130 visiting favorites.
Despite the moneyline moving in favor of the Cubbies today, the Brew Crew will have the advantage on the mound as lefty Eric Lauer will look to continue his dominance as his team has won seven of the eight games he’s started. He’ll face Justin Steele who lasted just three innings a month ago vs. this same Milwaukee lineup.
Can Chicago bust this losing rut or was yesterday’s double loss a sign of things to come in this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cubs.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cubs are starting to get some confidence in the moneyline market. After opening as +135 home favorites, they’ve moved to +110 for the 8:05 p.m. ET game. The Brewers won both games in yesterday’s doubleheader and closed as -135 and -130 favorites.
The total has moved from 9 to 9.5 and is trending to the Over. Yesterday, we saw a pair of double-digit closing totals.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 5/31/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, May 31, 2022
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Marquee Sports Network
Brewers vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (5-1, 2.31 ERA): The Milwaukee lefty is starting to creep up the starting pitching tiers and has an impressive 1.01 WHIP to go along with a 55/12 K/BB ratio over 46-plus innings. He's coming off his worst start of the season, where he generated just one strikeout, but still managed to limit the damage with two runs allowed on four hits across five innings. His command was off (four walks) but he was still effective. Now he’ll face the Cubs who he saw a month ago in a 9-1 win where he went seven innings, allowed one run and struck out 11.
Justin Steele (1-5, 5.40 ERA): The Chicago lefty will be making his 10th start of the season and it hasn’t gone as planned for the 26-year-old southpaw. The second-year pitcher got shelled in his last outing where he gave up seven runs over two innings. He opposed Lauer in the last meeting (a Milwaukee 9-1 win) and lasted just three innings after giving up four runs.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Hunter Renfroe OF (Probable), Willy Adames SS (Out).
Cubs: Seiya Suzuki OF (Out), Jason Heyward OF (Questionable), Nick Madrigal 2B (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-2-2 in the last 14 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It’s almost June, and the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves four games up on the St. Louis Cardinals for the top spot in the NL Central. Looking down the standings you’ll find the Chicago Cubs who, with a 19-29 record, sit 12 games behind the division leaders.
The Brewers used yesterday’s doubleheader to steal two more games from the Cubs and have now taken six of the nine meetings this season — including five of the last six.
Final: Brewers 3, Cubs 1
— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) May 31, 2022
Doubleheader swept. Aaron Ashby was magnificent en route to 12 strikeouts, then Brad Boxberger helped him out with a magic trick in the 7th. Tyrone Taylor homered again. Josh Hader is 18 for 18 in saves and just picked up 2 in 7 hours.
The record: 32-18
The Cubs have struggled to stack runs over the last 30 days and sit in the Bottom 10 in most hitting metrics including wOBA and wRC+. Missing Seiya Suzuki in the lineup has hurt, but the Brewers have limited this offense this season as the Cubs have scored two or fewer runs in four of the last five matches. Facing Eric Lauer after an off game is likely not a great recipe for success today, either.
Lauer is enjoying a breakout season and the 26-year-old lefty has a great matchup vs. a weak offense tonight. Lauer also saw this lineup 30 days ago and stymied the Cubs’ bats over seven innings, allowing just one run and striking out 11 on just 96 pitches.
If Lauer can hand the ball over to this Milwaukee bullpen with a lead, it could be lights out for the struggling Cubs. Josh Hader closed out both games yesterday so he's likely unavailable today, but this is still a bullpen that sits No. 1 in WAR at Fangraphs and has the seventh-best ERA in baseball.
There are enough talented arms to step up if this is another one-run game for the Brewers — who have made a living winning one-run scores (12-4 SU).
The Brewers have the advantage in the bullpen, and since they’re facing Justin Steele, also have the edge at the dish. Steele is coming off an abbreviated outing where he gave up seven runs on seven hits to the Reds.
The Brewers have also seen the young left-hander this season and chased the Chicago starter after three innings in a 9-1 Milwaukee win. Chicago used some long relief yesterday and if Steele doesn’t go deep, the Brewers could be in launch mode at Wrigley, where the temperature and humidity are high and the double-digit winds are blowing out to left field.
Milwaukee leads all of baseball in home runs with 69 to date and has put up great hitting numbers over the last 30 days. It sports a .756 OPS which ranks with the league’s best in that span.
With the Brewers seemingly having the edge in every aspect, and the hitting conditions favoring them more so than the Cubs, we’re going against the market movement and hitting Milwaukee on the moneyline at -130.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-130 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The winds could be swirling at Wrigley, which means we could see more runs there Tuesday night. In yesterday’s two games, the totals closed at 12 and 10.5. For tonight, we’re seeing the total creep up after it opened at 9 and sits at 9.5.
These two division rivals have had no issues hitting the Over. Across the last 14 meetings, the Over is 10-2-2. Yesterday saw each team dig into the bullpen and some arms might not be available today as both games were tight. Hader could sit, which should be a welcoming site to Over bettors as the lefty closer hasn’t allowed a run since July of last season.
Steele has not given up many home runs this year (just two through 35 innings), but the lefty gives up plenty of hits and doesn’t miss many bats. He’s a fastball/slider pitcher and his 4-seamer averages just 92.4 mph. Milwaukee is not a great LHP-hitting team, but it proved it can get to Steele after racking up seven hits vs. the Chicago starter 30 days ago in a three-inning performance from the southpaw.
Steele started that game last week where the Reds scored 20 runs and the Over is 5-3-1 when the lefty starts — with eight of his nine outings having seen at least seven total runs scored.
Lauer is a tough pitcher to bet an Over with, but he is coming off a start where his command wasn’t great and he allowed a season-high four walks. He also can get beat with the long ball as he's given up seven home runs over 46-plus innings. If the Cubs play into that wind, the right-handed batters of Chicago could see their ball travel a little further tonight.
With some arms unvailable in both bullpens, we love some late scoring in this game. The hitting conditions are primed with 13 mph winds blowing out to left field, and with yesterday’s totals closing much higher than today’s total, we’re not shy about hitting the Over 9.5 tonight.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
With the doubleheader yesterday, both managers got a chance to give some players a rest which means tonight’s lineups should be the best each team can put out.
Suzuki’s bat is missed, but William Contreras is slugging of late and has a 1.059 OPS over the last week with two long balls. He’ll lead a streaky lineup that is getting some solid leadoff production from Chris Morel as the rookie owns a .855 OPS across his first 14 games with the Cubs. This Chicago lineup should be able to scrape together some crooked numbers and flirt with its team total of 4.5.
The Milwaukee offense might not have a great match on paper vs. a lefty starter, but Steele is anything but elite. This same Brewers’ lineup chased Steele after just three innings a month ago and although they didn’t go deep, Milwaukee still managed seven hits off of him. Christian Yelich finished that game 3-for-5 with six total bases in the 9-1 win.
The bullpens were busy with yesterday’s doubleheader and Josh Hader is likely unavailable. The hitting conditions are prime and this total still has some room to grow after both of yesterday’s totals closed in the double digits.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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