The San Franciso Giants and Milwaukee Brewers will kick off a four-game set tonight at Oracle Park and tonight’s opener will feature two of the best pitchers in baseball with Corbin Burnes going for the visitors and Carlos Rodon starting for the home squad.
Both are among the Top-7 in betting favorites in current NL Cy Young odds and this game sits at a pick ‘em with a total of 6.5 that could hit 6.
Will the NL Central-leading Brewers maintain their slim advantage over the Cardinals or can the Giants win their fifth game in six tries? Find out in our free picks and predictions for Brewers at Giants.
Brewers vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game opened as a pick ‘em and hasn’t moved at most books. The total, however, has seen some movement as it is bouncing between 6 and 6.5 after opening at 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 7/14/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Thursday, July 14, 2022
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, NBC Sports Bay Area
Brewers vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.20 ERA): Burnes is currently the No. 2 betting favorite (+500) for the NL Cy Young behind Sandy Alcantara after winning the award last season. He's been elite again this year but has been even better of late. He's posted a 1.60 ERA over his last five starts and his splits favor the road.
Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.70 ERA): Rodon is currently tied as the No.1 starting pitcher in WAR, per FanGraphs. He is coming off a complete-game, one-run outing where he struck out 12 and walked two. Despite his success and subsequent All-Star nod, the Giants are 8-9 SU in games the left-hander has started.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 0-8 SU in their last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Giants
Brewers vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
With this game set a pick ‘em, Corbin Burnes and the Brewers would be a favorite in a neutral environment. Burns recently faced another Cy Young contender in Joe Musgrove as the Brewers closed as heavy -170 home favorites in that game. If we assume that the Musgrove vs. Burnes game is a good comparison to today, is 60 points too much of an adjustment?
Over Burnes' last six starts, which include good offensive teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, Mets and Cardinals, the right-hander has given up seven earned runs over 38 innings for a 1.65 ERA.
Burnes has also dominated on the road this season with a 1.62 ERA with batters hitting just .179 in those outings. The Brewers are 10-7 SU when Burnes starts, which is a number that should improve considering how good Burnes and the 49-40 Brewers are. Last season, the Brewers went 13-3 SU in Burnes’ final 16 starts of the season.
The Milwaukee starter can get in trouble with the long ball but Oracle Park is suppressing home runs by 24% today thanks to some colder weather and higher humidity, per Ballpark Pal. Burnes doesn’t need any extra help but he’s getting it and faces a San Francisco lineup that is thin due to injuries. The Giants offense scores the third-most runs per game but projects as a much lower-scoring lineup and is absent a big power stick. San Francisco has just five players with eight or more home runs compared to Milwaukee's nine.
Carlos Rodon is also an elite pitcher but getting Burnes at -110 against a banged-up team playing sub-.500 baseball over the last 30 days is solid value. On average, Burnes has closed as -166 over his last 10 games and -143 on the road.
Although Josh Hader has been giving up runs of late, the Milwaukee bullpen is still one of the best in baseball and should help keep this a low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Tonight’s game is unsurprisingly the lowest total on the board and it’s not often we see totals in the 6 and 6.5 range. However, if bettors can get this at 6.5, there are more reasons to hit the Under than the Over.
Rodon and Burnes are two of nine starting pitchers who have a K% above 30 in MLB. If either pitcher gets in trouble, they can typically power out of it. This can be quantified in both starters’ left-on-base percentage, which is elite.
Rodon is coming off a one-run complete game and THE BAT has both pitchers projecting for more than 18 outs, which should make the handoff to the bullpens easy. Both pens should have full availability but we wouldn't be surprised if both starters went longer than usual with this being the first game of a four-game set and the All-Star break next week.
The wind will be blowing out at Oracle Park but due to the sub-60 degree temperatures and high humidity, it will create some dense air that should slow the ball down — even with the wind. The park is also one of the biggest home-run suppressing fields in baseball and if we can minimize long balls versus Burnes who has one of the worst HR/9 amongst all the elite pitchers, we can project fewer runs.
We’re getting this at 6.5 but would stay off at 6.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Burnes’ total out market is currently paying -215 for Over 17.5 outs. That’s an implied total of 19.00 outs. Knowing what the odds are projecting for the total is just as important as the total itself.
The same thoughts can be applied to Rodon’s total outs, which sit at 18.5 but pays +150 to the Over. That's implying 17.25 outs but THE BAT projects just over 18 outs for Rodon today. He's also projected to hit triple digits in his pitch count. He did throw 112 pitches in his last start but with the All-Star break on deck, he is still a candidate to top 100 pitches.
With one of the best pitcher-friendly parks today, Rodon to record 19 or more outs for +150 is returning one of the best-expected values on the prop board for the nightcap.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Over 18.5 total outs (+150 at bet365)
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