Brewers vs Giants Picks and Predictions: Logan Weaves Webb of Dominance

The Milwaukee Brewers will try to salvage a series split with the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Sunday afternoon before the teams head into the All-Star break.

This four-game set has had a bit of everything so far — the Brewers won the Thursday opener in extra innings before the Giants roared back in a wild 8-5 Friday affair. Then the teams knuckled down and played a pitcher’s duel on Saturday, with San Fran securing a 2-1 triumph.

What can fans and bettors expect in this spot? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs Giants on Sunday, July 17.

Brewers vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened as consensus favorites at -157, but underdog money has seen San Francisco fall to about -145 at most sites. The initial total was 8 runs, but 7.5 is now the prevailing line.  

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Giants predictions

• Prediction: Giants ML (-143)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-108)
• Best bet: Giants F5 ML (-143)

Picks made on 7/17/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Giants game info

• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 17, 2022
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, NBC Sports Bay Area

Brewers vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jason Alexander (2-1, 4.73 ERA): Alexander is off to a dreadful start in July, pitching to a 7.71 ERA over 9 1-3 innings of work. He tends to give up baserunners in bunches — leading to a 1.68 WHIP — and doesn’t compensate for that by accumulating strikeouts, fanning only 18 batters over 40 innings. 

Logan Webb (8-3, 2.82 ERA): Webb goes for his seventh straight quality start on the bump this Sunday. He owns an impressive 1.13 ERA over his last six outings and has struck out 37 batters in that span (40 innings). 

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Giants

Brewers vs Giants picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Giants should ride another excellent performance from Logan Webb to victory on Sunday afternoon.

Webb has not just kept his ERA low over his last six outings while giving his bullpen some needed innings off, but he’s also avoided drama by authoring a 0.98 WHIP in the process. The Giants ace owns a 2.37 ERA at home this year and has yet to allow a home run over 60 innings of work. That spells trouble for a Brewers team that relies on the long ball, as they’re fourth in the majors in dingers (122) this season. 

Webb has yet to face Milwaukee in 2022 but pitched to a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings against this club last year. He struck out 19 batters, walked only two, and produced a .159 opponent batting average. 

The San Francisco lineup should offer Webb all the run support he needs with Jason Alexander serving as his opposite number. The Giants are seventh in OBP as a team this season (.321), so they should generate plenty of traffic on the bases against the generous Alexander (1.68 WHIP). 

There are plenty of candidates to play the hero role, starting with Austin Slater, who’s batting .439 to begin July. Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada have shown off their power this month, combining for seven of their club’s 18 home runs. Brandon Belt is on fire right now, batting .462 over the last week with a round-tripper. 

Prediction: Giants ML (-143 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Both the Brewers and the Giants normally have decent relief pitching to fall back on, but neither bullpen is performing well in July. Both offenses should be able to tack on some runs late to send this game over the total.

San Francisco ranks 23rd in relief ERA this month at 4.84. John Brebbia and Jarlin Garcia have pitched well in this span, combining to allow only one earned run over 14 1-3 innings, but just about everyone else has struggled in this stretch. 

Sam Long has allowed three earned runs in two of his last four appearances. Tyler Rogers was tagged for two runs and recorded just one out against Milwaukee on Friday. Camilo Doval has surrendered a run in four of his first five outings of July, two of which were earned. His WHIP in that span is an unseemly 2.06. 

If Andrew McCutchen continues his hot-hitting ways (.296, two homers, eight RBI last seven days), he’ll likely do it in the later stages of this affair.

The Brewers’ bullpen is 27th by ERA this month (5.09), and the struggles of closer Josh Hader have had a lot to do with it. He imploded against the Giants on Friday, allowing six runs on three homers and suffering just his second blown save of the season. But this was far from an isolated incident, as Hader has surrendered 12 earned runs over 5 1-3 innings this month. 

With Alexander an untrustworthy starter for Milwaukee and both bullpens in freefall, we like the Over to cash this afternoon.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Savvy handicappers should back the Giants to prevail in the first five innings and forget about factoring these unreliable bullpens into the equation. 

Despite boasting a significant edge in the starting pitching battle with a Cy Young candidate in Webb against a 29-year-old rookie in the Brewers’ Alexander, San Francisco is available at the same price on the first five innings moneyline as it is for the whole game. 

The Giants’ lineup is more than capable of ambushing Alexander, as they’re eighth in runs scored per first five innings at 2.68. 

Pick: Giants first five moneyline (-143 at BetMGM)

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