Brewers vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Ashby Pitches Gem in Milwaukee Win

The New York Mets didn’t show up in a 10-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, but they’ll now look to turn things around in today's matchup. New York will be hoping for a big performance from Tylor Megill, who pitched 3 1-3 innings in his return from injury last game. 

Will it be enough for New York to find a way to avoid back-to-back losses to Milwaukee? Keep reading our Brewers vs. Mets MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.

Brewers vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After opening at +120, the Brewers are now down to as low as +110 in this meeting with the Mets. The best you’ll get Milwaukee for is now +115. The total, which opened at 7.5, is now up at 8 on most sportsbooks. You’ll either need to pay juice to take the Over at 7.5 or Under at 8. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (+115)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Ashby Over 5.5 Ks (+100)

Picks made on 6/16/2022 at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY

Brewers vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Aaron Ashby (1-5, 3.91 ERA): Ashby has some really impressive pitches and figures to be a big part of the Brewers' rotation in the future. However, he’s a bit inconsistent right now and is coming off of a disastrous start against the Washington Nationals. The lefty gave up six earned runs on 13 hits in only 4 2-3 innings in that game. It’ll be interesting to see if he is able to rebound, as that type of performance can be hard to shake. 

Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.50 ERA): Megill got off to a really hot start this season, but has been a bit worse lately coming off of an injury. In his last outing, the righty gave up two earned runs in 3 1-3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels. He threw only 64 pitches, and there’s no telling how short his leash will be tonight. Megill has to prove he is capable of dominating the way he did in the first month.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Michael Brosseau 3B (Out), Josh Hader P (Out), Justin Topa P (Out), Angel Perdomo P (Out),  Jake Cousins P (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Mets: Travis Jankowski OF (Out), Trevor May P (Out), James McCann C (Out), Sean Reid-Foley P (Out), Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven games as road underdogs. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets

Brewers vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Brewers were one of the best teams in the National League early in the year, but they have been ice-cold lately. They did, however, earn a 10-2 win over the Mets last game. Now, they have to like their chances in a game in which they’ll face Tylor Megill, who hasn’t been the same since his red-hot start to the season. 

Since his ridiculous month of April, the righty has seen his ERA rise from 1.93 to 4.50. And given the fact that he was unproven coming into the year, it’s hard to expect him to be great until we see him putting together strings of successful starts. When you add Megill’s inconsistency to the fact the Brewers are also solid against righties (.236 compared to .219 against lefties), it’s difficult not to like Milwaukee in this game. 

Aaron Ashby has had his fair share of issues as well, but the Mets aren’t as good against lefties (.247) as they are against righties (.270). It wouldn’t be surprising at all if the 24-year-old were to rebound from his rough start and give the Brewers a chance to win. 

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+115 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

It’s a bit surprising that you can even get this total at 7.5 or 8, as these teams are throwing a pair of unproven pitchers on the mound. While Ashby is capable of missing bats at an extremely high rate, the lefty has shown that he is always capable of being hit around quite a bit.

Meanwhile, Megill might have gotten off to a hot start to the year, but he hasn’t been able to give the Mets consistent innings or production since then. And even if both starters were to somehow turn in quality starts, these teams would only need to combine for two runs in the seventh through ninth innings in order for this Over to win or push. 

The Over is also 6-2 in the last eight games that Milwaukee has played against teams with winning records, and 5-2 in the team’s last seven games against teams with right-handed starters. The Over also happens to be 8-2 in the last 10 home games that the Mets have played, and 6-2 in the last eight games in which they’ve been favored. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Ashby is coming off of the worst outing of his young career, but the lefty needs to shake it off and move on. He now gets to face a Mets team that does most of its damage against right-handed pitching, so he should be able to throw them off quite a bit. Ashby has some impressive swing-and-miss pitches, and we expect him to put them to work tonight.

Ashby had nine strikeouts in a meeting with the San Diego Padres before being lit up by the Nationals, which gives you a good idea of what he’s capable of doing. He has also had a game in which he struck out 12 batters this year, and there’s no faking that. This is a guy that can rack up Ks, and he should reach the six-strikeout mark against New York this evening. 

Pick: Ashby Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)

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