The New York Mets will try to bounce back from a devastating loss when they host the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field on Monday night.
The Mets (35-42) blew a three-run lead late against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, falling 15 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Milwaukee (40-37) has experienced better fortunes lately, and the Brewers sit just a half-game behind the Chicago Cubs at the top of the NL Central.
Justin Verlander will try to change New York’s fortunes today, but he’s been anything but a sure thing in 2023. We’ll break down what to expect from this matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Mets on Monday.
Brewers vs Mets odds
Brewers vs Mets predictions
The New York Mets looked as though they were on the verge of getting a series win over the Phillies before relievers Josh Walker and Jeff Brigham coughed up a three-run lead in the eighth inning on Sunday. Brigham allowed the tying and eventual winning runs after plunking two batters, and the game felt like a new low for New York’s season.
The Mets will try to turn things around today behind prized offseason acquisition Justin Verlander. The 40-year-old veteran is coming off another Cy Young campaign with the Houston Astros in 2022. But he hasn’t been able to recapture that form after dealing with some early-season injury issues.
Verlander is just 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA in his first nine starts with the Mets. He hasn’t been a disaster by any stretch, and the hurler has registered some great performances along the way. But Verlander has yet to find any consistency, going more than six innings in only three of his starts while allowing four-plus earned runs on four occasions.
The Mets are at least trotting out a proven commodity on the mound. But the Milwaukee Brewers are starting journeyman Colin Rea, a righty who has logged only 39 major-league starts. Rea has found a fairly stable starting role with the Brewers this season, getting 12 starts and recording a 4.88 ERA.
The Mets should tee off on Rea. For all of New York’s problems, the club has been able to score runs reasonably well. Both Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been hitting for power lately, and Rea has given up at least three earned runs in four of his past five starts.
Both starters are vulnerable going into this game, and the Mets' bullpen has been notoriously unreliable. Each side is in a position to capitalize on scoring opportunities throughout the game, so I’m backing the Over.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Brewers vs Mets same-game parlay
Over 8.5 runs
Mets moneyline
Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts
The same-game parlay on Monday starts with my best bet. There should be plenty of runs on both sides, so the Over on the main total is a no-brainer for any SGP.
I’m pairing that with a Mets bet on the moneyline. New York has been awful for bettors lately, but with Verlander on the mound against Rea at home, this looks like a great position for the Mets to pick up a badly needed victory. New York has been doing its fair share of scoring lately, while the Milwaukee offense has been struggling, especially against quality pitching.
Finally, I’m taking Verlander to record at least six strikeouts. The Brewers are sixth in the majors in strikeouts, and Verlander is still capable of finishing hitters, as he's been averaging more than a strikeout per inning during his career.
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Brewers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets opened as a -175 favorite over the Brewers. That’s still the consensus moneyline as of early Monday, and it’s hard to find anything better than -170 on New York. If you’re looking to bet on Milwaukee, some books are offering +155 on the Brewers.
The Brewers have played almost perfectly even to the moneyline in 2023, but it’s a very different story in New York. The Mets have been one of the worst teams for bettors this season, as their failure to live up to expectations has cost backers over 20 units.
As bad as the Mets have been, they hold a huge advantage on Monday with Verlander on the mound. While the veteran has been inconsistent, he should be able to manage a Brewers lineup that struggles to make contact, hitting just .226 in 2023. I’m leaning toward New York on the moneyline.
The total on Monday started at eight runs, but the consensus Over/Under is now up to 8.5, and it’s hard to find anything else on the market. Many sites are offering the same line on both the Over and the Under at that number. But if there’s a lean, books are putting a little extra juice on the Over.
The Brewers have been a lower-scoring team this year, with an average of just 8.38 runs during their games. The Mets are playing to a higher average of 9.27 total runs, though the Under has still gone 39-34 in New York’s games.
The starting pitching matchup was already making me lean slightly toward the Over. That pick gets even stronger when you consider that both teams field below-average bullpens with ERAs over 4.00. New York's bullpen has been especially shaky of late, which means Milwaukee might be able to pick up its offense in the last few innings even if Verlander produces a quality outing. Take the Over.
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Trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Brewers and the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets
Brewers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Monday, June 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Colin Rea (3-4, 4.88 ERA): Rea made his first major league appearance in 2015 with the San Diego Padres. Since then he's been bouncing between various MLB teams, minor-league stints, and Nippon Professional Baseball clubs in Japan. Now Rea has been able to hold down a spot in Milwaukee's rotation. He allowed four runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks during his last outing.
Justin Verlander (2-4, 4.50 ERA): The Mets signed Verlander directly off the veteran winning his third career Cy Young Award in 2022. A shoulder strain forced Verlander to start the season on the injured list, delaying the start of his campaign until early May. Since then Verlander has been healthy but inconsistent. He’s allowing more walks, hits, and homers than in 2022 while striking out fewer batters. Verlander last threw on June 20, giving up four runs on eight hits over seven innings against the Astros.
