The third game of this NL series gets underway tonight with the San Diego Padres hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at PETCO Park. MLB odds have this game as a pick'em, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Brewers vs. Padres prediction is bullish on a high-scoring affair, primarily due to the pitching matchup. Read on for my latest MLB picks for Saturday, June 22.
Brewers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Carlos Rodriguez tonight. The rookie right-hander has struggled up until this point, holding an 0-2 record through two starts with a fade-worthy 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP.
While it is a small sample size, his underlying metrics are not promising for the future. Although Rodriguez does not officially qualify, he would rank in the bottom half of the league in both xERA and xBA.
Meanwhile, right-hander Randy Vasquez takes the mound for the San Diego Padres, and he has hardly performed any better. Vasquez is 1-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP through nine starts this season.
Analytically speaking, the right-hander is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He ranks in the first percentile in both xERA and xBA, and following Vasquez is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
Not only is the pitching matchup worth fading, but both lineups are capable of putting together a high-scoring affair. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Brewers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Brewers moneyline
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
I already discussed how much I distrust each starting pitcher above, but Rodriguez is still the superior option. He outranks Vasquez this season in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Brewers also outrank the Padres in runs scored per game.
If we are backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Milwaukee victory, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Willy Adames to record a hit in the process. Adames has been on fire this week, recording five hits over the past three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Padres odds
Brewers vs Padres live odds
Brewers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-220) | San Diego -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -105 | San Diego -115
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Brewers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego opened as a -115 favorite and has since been bet down to a pick'em.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- The Padres have hit the game total Over in seven of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI).
- The Brewers have hit the team total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI).
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Brewers vs Padres trend
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Brewers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodriguez (0-2, 6.48 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (1-4, 5.70 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Brewers vs Padres weather
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